How Rip Packs City Calculates Fair Market Value

What FMV Means Here

Fair Market Value (FMV) on RPC is our best estimate of what a moment would realistically transact for if listed at fair price today. It is not an appraisal, not investment advice, and not a guarantee of future sale price. We publish it to help you make better collecting decisions, not to set your expectations of what your moments are worth in dollar terms.

How We Compute It

Our FMV pipeline runs on every collection (NBA Top Shot, NFL All Day, Disney Pinnacle, LaLiga Golazos, UFC Strike) on a continuous cycle. For each unique edition, we look at three signal sources:

Recent sales (primary signal)

We pull every confirmed sale from the past 30 days, filter outliers (top and bottom 5% by price), and compute an average sales price where more recent sales count more than older ones (a recency-weighted average). Sales below 24 hours old carry the most weight; sales 28+ days old are discounted but still informative.

Active asks (secondary signal)

We snapshot the lowest active listing price across NBA Top Shot's native marketplace and Flowty's secondary market. The lowest ask sets a soft ceiling — if no one will pay above this, FMV shouldn't either.

Distributional shape

For editions with enough sales (>10 in the past 30 days), we publish 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile prices alongside the single FMV number, so you can see the full distribution rather than just a midpoint.

Confidence Levels

Every FMV number we publish carries one of these confidence labels. Pay attention to it — a HIGH confidence FMV is an order of magnitude more reliable than an ASK_ONLY one.

• HIGH — 10+ recent sales, tight distribution, low spread between asks and last sales.
• MEDIUM — 3–9 recent sales, or 10+ sales with wider spread.
• LOW — 1–2 recent sales. The number is directional, not precise.
• SALES_ONLY — Sales-based estimate where no live ask is available.
• ASK_ONLY — Estimate based on lowest active ask only; no recent sales to validate. Treat with skepticism.
• NO_DATA — No FMV available. We will not display a number rather than guess.
• STALE — Underlying data is more than 7 days old.

What FMV Does NOT Account For

• Special serials. Jersey-match (#23 of LeBron), birthday matches, consecutive serials, or other serial-significance premiums are reflected via a separate serialMultiplier on each moment, not in the base edition FMV.
• Badges. Top Shot Score badges, official badges, and challenge rewards are separately tracked and may add value above edition-level FMV.
• Sentiment. A player getting traded or a viral moment of the week can spike prices in hours. FMV updates daily, so high-momentum events lag.
• Locked moments. A locked moment cannot be sold during its lock period; we do not discount FMV for this.

Limitations and Disclaimer

FMV is generated by automated software using publicly-available marketplace data. We make no warranty as to its accuracy. Prices in any digital collectibles market can move rapidly. Do not treat FMV as a basis for financial decisions of any consequence. If you are buying or selling, do your own research and consult an advisor for any meaningful transaction.

For technical questions about how FMV is computed, contact us through the in-app concierge.