Pack analytics tracks every active pack listing across NBA Top Shot and NFL All Day in near-real-time. A 20-minute cron crawls Top Shot's pack-listings endpoint and AllDay's pack-distributions endpoint, normalizes the catalog into a unified packs table, and stamps each row with the live ask price, supply totals, and reward tier composition. Golazos packs and Disney Pinnacle drops are covered too (Pinnacle's EV is computed per drop). UFC Strike has no packs. Panini and Candy MLB packs are priced on their own pack pages with their own models, and the dashboard links to them.
Expected value (EV) is computed as the sum of remaining moment FMV times pull odds, divided by remaining_count. For each reward tier in a pack, we look up FMV across every edition that's still in the reward pool, weight by the pull probability for that tier, and accumulate. The denominator (remaining_count) accounts for opened packs draining the pool — EV climbs as the high-tier moments stay locked in unopened packs. Reward odds come from the pack's published pull rates; FMV uses the canonical fmv_snapshots table (sale-priced FMVs only; ask-priced editions are excluded — see the FMV methodology for why).
Supply curve. The total_minted and total_opened fields are read directly from the on-chain pack contract — every pack has a deterministic mint count at distribution time and an opened-counter that ticks up as buyers crack packs. Outstanding supply is total_minted − total_opened. The supply curve is what makes pack EV interesting: as opens accumulate, the expected pull pool shrinks asymmetrically (high-tier moments are pulled less often than common ones), so EV per remaining pack drifts upward over time. The Top EV table sorts by EV / ask ratio and surfaces the packs where this drift has overrun the listing price.
Coverage %. Each pack's EV figure carries a coverage percentage: the share of reward-pool editions whose FMV is backed by enough recent sales. At 100% coverage every reward-pool edition is priced from recent sales; the lower the coverage, the more of the EV rests on editions with little recent trading, so weigh it accordingly. Coverage drops happen mostly on freshly-minted reward editions that haven't traded enough yet.
Caveats. Reward packs at $0 (free distributions earned via challenges) and locked packs at $99,999 (placeholder asks for un-listable inventory) are excluded from headline metrics. Pack EV becomes structurally unstable as remaining_count approaches single digits — when only a handful of unopened packs remain in a distribution, the variance on the EV estimate explodes and a single high-tier pull can move the headline number 10x. The dashboard renders an info chip on these rows so readers don't misread the spike as a buying signal.