Pack Reality
We audited every Top Shot pack ripped in the last 60 days. — rips. Median pull value —. Mean —.
Pull-value distribution
Model vs reality
Top Shot’s own pack-EV model is a forecast. Here’s how it held up against what packs actually pulled once people opened them — restricted to distributions with at least 10 observed opens. Modeled EVs that ballooned past 1.5× the pack price (drained-pool artifacts) are held out of the over-modeled list so we never headline a fossil.
Honest +EV ranker
0 positive-EV TS packs you can actually rip right now — filtered to packs under 90% sold out, priced in the last 48h, with FMV coverage of 40%+. High-variance= FMV coverage below 80%, so the EV rests on a small fraction of priced editions; we cap its value ratio and treat the dollar figure as an upper bound, not a guaranteed return. It’s a short list on purpose — most listed packs are near sold-out or stale-priced, and we’d rather show three honest packs than eighty fossils.