RPC Insights · Public

Pack Reality

We audited every Top Shot pack ripped in the last 60 days. 53,915 rips. Median pull value $1.11. Mean $10.72. 1.57% delivered over $100. Values cover the 47,359 rips we could price; 6,556 (12.2%) could not be priced and are left out.

Rips (60d)

53,915

Not priced

12.2%

Mean value

$10.72

Median

$1.11

Over $100

1.6%

Over $1k

Pull-value distribution

Share of the 47,365 priced rips.

$0 exactly

0.0%0 rips

$0.01–$10

83.5%39,564 rips

$10–$50

12.5%5,900 rips

$50–$100

2.4%1,159 rips

$100–$1k

1.5%710 rips

$1k+

0.1%32 rips

Model vs reality

Top Shot’s own pack-EV model is a forecast. Here’s how it held up against what packs actually pulled once people opened them — restricted to distributions with at least 10 observed opens (341 qualify). Modeled EVs that ballooned past 1.5× the pack price (drained-pool artifacts) are held out of the over-modeled list so we never headline a fossil.

Most over-modeled

The model rated these rich; reality came in far lower.

Pack	Model EV	Actually pulls	Reality	Opens
Rookie Year Royalty Pack $299 packopen pack →	$73.04	$5.08 med $0.64	7.0% of model	656
Set Locking Reward Pack (2025-26: Previous Series) $34.00 packopen pack →	$19.12	$6.27 med $3.59	33% of model	53
Rookie Debut Standard Pack $81.88 packopen pack →	$45.59	$20.07 med $14.96	44% of model	10
The National 2026: Weekend Exclusive Drop $42.00 packopen pack →	$21.64	$12.62 med $1.37	58% of model	239

Sleepers (under-modeled)

Packs that pulled above what the model expected.

Pack	Model EV	Actually pulls	Reality	Opens
WNBA Rookie Debut Premium Pack $55.00 packopen pack →	$4.46	$74.41 med $40.85	1668% of model	105
Rookie Rumble: Chance Hit $10.50 packopen pack →	$1.01	$10.16 med $7.00	1006% of model	1,379
Courtside: Chance Hit $6.37 packopen pack →	$2.50	$20.98 med $0.84	839% of model	40
2026 NBA Finals Premium Pack $242 packopen pack →	$11.74	$90.83 med $37.00	774% of model	63
2026 NBA Finals Standard Pack $18.49 packopen pack →	$1.59	$12.05 med $7.50	758% of model	343
WNBA Metallic Gold LE Standard Pack $26.32 packopen pack →	$1.99	$13.99 med $3.69	703% of model	344
2026 NBA Finals: Chance Hit $5.94 packopen pack →	$0.54	$3.77 med $0.70	698% of model	69
2026 NBA Finals: Premium Chance Hit $75.98 packopen pack →	$7.02	$44.69 med $14.41	637% of model	26

On the money

Where modeled and realized agree — the credibility anchor.

Pack	Model EV	Actually pulls	Reality	Opens
WNBA Rookie Revelation Chance Hit Pack $16.49 packopen pack →	$5.13	$4.88 med $1.19	95% of model	10,269
WNBA Rookie Revelation Trade Ticket Pack $2.02 packopen pack →	$0.85	$1.03 med $0.65	121% of model	6,686
WNBA Fresh Gems Chance Hit Pack $7.76 packopen pack →	$2.68	$2.92 med $1.50	109% of model	6,336
WNBA Rookie Revelation Pack $40.97 packopen pack →	$21.72	$24.47 med $13.21	113% of model	3,621
Run It Back: Origins Standard Pack $34.00 packopen pack →	$13.06	$11.73 med $5.20	90% of model	2,914
Heroes & Rookies $20.00 packopen pack →	$4.42	$5.18 med $0.64	117% of model	2,685
Around The World $7.97 packopen pack →	$3.91	$3.97 med $1.00	101% of model	1,876
Rookie Revelation Trade Ticket Pack $1.96 packopen pack →	$0.98	$0.99 med $0.68	101% of model	1,859

Honest +EV ranker

5 positive-EV TS packs you can actually rip right now — filtered to packs under 90% sold out, priced in the last 48h, with FMV coverage of 40%+. High-variance = any of: FMV coverage below 80% (the EV rests on part of the pool), the drop 60%+ depleted (what is left is a survivor sample), or an EV more than 3× the pack’s secondary ask (the market does not believe it). We cap its value ratio and treat the dollar figure as an upper bound, not a guaranteed return. It’s a short list on purpose — most listed packs are near sold-out or stale-priced, and we’d rather show three honest packs than eighty fossils.

Pack	Price	Pack EV	Value ratio	FMV cov.	Sealed	Flag
Top Shot This: All-Star Weekend secondary · 20 edsopen pack →	$46.00	$21.06	1.5×	100.0%	74	high variance
WNBA Top Shot This: Jonquel Jones secondary · 6 edsopen pack →	$11.99	$8.15	1.7×	100.0%	237	clean
Top Shot This Playoffs Edition: Luke Kornet secondary · 6 edsopen pack →	$3.72	$1.18	1.3×	100.0%	160	high variance
LeBron James Top Shot This secondary · 4 edsopen pack →	$4.83	$0.85	1.2×	100.0%	901	high variance
Top Shot This Playoffs Edition: James Harden secondary · 5 edsopen pack →	$4.50	$0.21	1.0×	100.0%	93	high variance

Methodology

Rip = a pack opened in the last 60 days, joined to the FMV of the moments it released, summed per pack. Pull value uses RPC’s FMV (model 1.8.3: the median of each edition’s most recent typical sales). Inside a priced rip, a moment without an FMV adds $0, so a rip’s value is a lower bound. A rip we could not value at all is left out of the figures and counted separately as “not priced” — never as a $0 pull.

Pack EV uses the existing pack-EV pipeline (gross EV − pack price). The high-variance flag fires on any of FMV coverage < 80%, the drop 60%+ depleted, or an EV over 3× the secondary ask; in those cases a few moments or a survivor sample can dominate the EV calc, so we cap the displayed value ratio at 10×+ and mute the dollar figure rather than headline a number we can’t stand behind.

The ranker only lists packs that are live and rippable: under 90% sold out, EV computed in the last 48 hours, and at least 40% of the pack’s editions priced. Packs that are sold out, stale, or thinly priced drop off rather than show a fossil EV.

Thinking of buying a sealed pack instead of judging past rips? The Pack Sniper ranks currently-listed packs by ask vs EV →