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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1019
Throwdowns: Quick Rip January
Common4 slots
Pack price
$7.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $5.04 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (94% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00
Typical Pull
$2.00
Grail premium $3.04 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (94% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00
FMV coverage
100%
21 editions
Depletion
94%
live pool
Packs remaining
521
of 8,870 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19d ago5.9%unopened
Rare49 / 887 (5.5%)
Common2,011 / 34,593 (5.8%)
Pull odds by tier
4 slots/pack · as of 19d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 49 / 887 | 2.4% | ~1 in 11 |
| Common | 2,011 / 34,593 | 98% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 4 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 21 of 21 (100%)Jalen Green
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$7.79
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.47%Wt 0.004
Cole Anthony
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$5.42
Floor
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 1.41%Wt 0.012
Christian Braun
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.88
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.24%Wt 0.002
Kristaps Porziņģis
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.80
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.94%Wt 0.008
Cameron Johnson
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.75
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 1.88%Wt 0.015
Jaden Hardy
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.50
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.71%Wt 0.006
Larry Nance Jr.
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.33
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.013
Max Strus
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.01
Obi Toppin
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.94%Wt 0.008
Jonathan Kuminga
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 2.12%Wt 0.017
OG Anunoby
Fresh Threads
COMMON6
FMV
$2.00
Floor
$1.58
Mint 2,023
Hit 11.76%Wt 0.096
Taylor Hendricks
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.98
Floor
$0.35
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.027
Craig Porter Jr.
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.84
Floor
$0.35
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.35%Wt 0.019
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.82
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.35%Wt 0.019
Noah Clowney
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.77
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.021
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.72
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.76%Wt 0.031
Kris Murray
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.61
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 11.29%Wt 0.092
Cole Anthony
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.40
Mint 8,500
Hit 23.06%Wt 0.188
Dariq Whitehead
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.027
Duop Reath
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.21
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.76%Wt 0.031
Daniel Theis
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 20.94%Wt 0.171