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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1196
Denver Nuggets Pack February
Common2 slots
Pack price
$2.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $0.81 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00
Typical Pull
$0.54
Grail premium $0.27 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00
FMV coverage
100%
22 editions
Depletion
95%
live pool
Packs remaining
244
of 4,695 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19d ago5.2%unopened
Rare9 / 142 (6.3%)
Common479 / 9,248 (5.2%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 19d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 9 / 142 | 1.8% | ~1 in 27 |
| Common | 479 / 9,248 | 98% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 22 of 22 (100%)Fat Lever
Run It Back 1986-87
RARE5
FMV
$8.73
Floor
$6.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.27%Wt 0.004
Denver Nuggets Rim
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 2.14%Wt 0.033
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.56
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 4.02%Wt 0.061
Nikola Jokić
Game Recognize Game
COMMON4
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.25
Mint 10,000
Hit 1.61%Wt 0.025
Peyton Watson
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.30
Mint 16,000
Hit 5.36%Wt 0.082
Christian Braun
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.39
Floor
$0.20
Mint 7,904
Hit 0.54%Wt 0.008
Peyton Watson
Hustle and Show
COMMON6
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 0.54%Wt 0.008
Kenneth Faried
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.32
Mint 4,500
Hit 10.72%Wt 0.164
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.27
Mint 40,000
Hit 2.41%Wt 0.037
Nikola Jokić
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,750
Hit 1.88%Wt 0.029
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.10
Mint 35,000
Hit 1.88%Wt 0.029
Marcus Camby
Archive Set
COMMON3
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.20
Mint 20,000
Hit 0.27%Wt 0.004
Aaron Gordon
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 18.23%Wt 0.279
Peyton Watson
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.36%Wt 0.082
Jamal Murray
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.24
Mint 5,555
Hit 0.27%Wt 0.004
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 20.38%Wt 0.311
Aaron Gordon
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.20
Mint 16,000
Hit 7.77%Wt 0.119
Aaron Gordon
Hustle and Show
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 18,000
Hit 2.68%Wt 0.041
Jamal Murray
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 8,500
Hit 1.07%Wt 0.016
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 10.99%Wt 0.168
Nikola Jokić
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.21
Floor
$0.25
Mint 5,555
Hit 0.80%Wt 0.012
Nikola Jokić
2021 NBA Playoffs
COMMON2
FMV
$0.21
Floor
$0.25
Mint 12,000
Hit 0.80%Wt 0.012