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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1200
Washington Wizards Pack February
Common2 slots
Pack price
$2.00
Actual EV
$0.82
Net −$2.18 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (88% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.00
Typical Pull
$0.60
Grail premium $0.22 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.27x
-72.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (88% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.00
FMV coverage
100%
20 editions
Depletion
88%
live pool
Packs remaining
191
of 1,597 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19d ago12%unopened
Rare11 / 114 (9.6%)
Common371 / 3,080 (12%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 19d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 11 / 114 | 2.9% | ~1 in 18 |
| Common | 371 / 3,080 | 97% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 20 of 20 (100%)Washington Wizards Rim
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.058
Corey Kispert
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.80
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.005
Deni Avdija
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.78
Floor
$0.21
Mint 40,000
Hit 2.09%Wt 0.042
Kyle Kuzma
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.70
Floor
$0.40
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.24%Wt 0.105
Marcin Gortat
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.54
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.005
Johnny Davis
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.30
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.19%Wt 0.084
Landry Shamet
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 13.87%Wt 0.277
Kyle Kuzma
Fresh Threads
COMMON4
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.25
Mint 11,111
Hit 1.57%Wt 0.031
John Wall
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,500
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.005
John Wall
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.13
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.24%Wt 0.105
Deni Avdija
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 11.26%Wt 0.225
Corey Kispert
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.28
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.068
Nenê
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 8.12%Wt 0.162
Deni Avdija
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.28
Mint 16,000
Hit 1.05%Wt 0.021
Kyle Kuzma
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.22
Mint 60,000
Hit 6.54%Wt 0.131
Kyle Kuzma
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.21
Mint 13,500
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.068
Jared Jeffries
Archive Set
COMMON3
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.20
Mint 20,000
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.005
Daniel Gafford
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,500
Hit 14.66%Wt 0.293
Jordan Poole
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 10.21%Wt 0.204
Deni Avdija
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 5.24%Wt 0.105