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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1205
Rookie Revelation 2023-24
Legendary9 slots
Pack price
$1,499
Actual EV
$772
Net +$172 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (85% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $600
Typical Pull
$9.00
Grail premium $763 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
1.29x
28.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (85% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $600
FMV coverage
100%
78 editions
Depletion
85%
pool · as of 68d ago
Packs remaining
130
of 843 minted · as of 68d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 68d ago15%unopened
Legendary135 / 895 (15%)
Rare104 / 631 (16%)
Common939 / 6,051 (16%)
Pull odds by tier
9 slots/pack · as of 68d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 135 / 895 | 11% | ~1 in 2 |
| Rare | 104 / 631 | 8.8% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 939 / 6,051 | 80% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 9 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 78 of 78 (100%)Victor Wembanyama
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$3,735
Floor
$2,055
Mint 75
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.031
Amen Thompson
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$2,250
Floor
$2,500
Mint 75
Hit 1.86%Wt 0.123
Victor Wembanyama
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$575
Floor
$502
Mint 199
Hit 0.70%Wt 0.046
Brandon Miller
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$189
Floor
$155
Mint 75
Hit 1.05%Wt 0.069
Gradey Dick
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$173
Floor
$131
Mint 75
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.062
Chet Holmgren
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$172
Floor
$150
Mint 75
Hit 0.58%Wt 0.038
Victor Wembanyama
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$160
Floor
$141
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.51%Wt 0.1
Keyonte George
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$160
Floor
$130
Mint 75
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.085
Ausar Thompson
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$148
Floor
$129
Mint 75
Hit 1.39%Wt 0.092
Scoot Henderson
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$135
Floor
$150
Mint 75
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.085
Brandin Podziemski
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$117
Floor
$130
Mint 75
Hit 1.39%Wt 0.092
Dereck Lively II
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$113
Floor
$125
Mint 75
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.062
Cam Whitmore
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$89.10
Floor
$99.00
Mint 75
Hit 1.63%Wt 0.108
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$83.75
Floor
$65.00
Mint 75
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.077
Cason Wallace
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$78.00
Floor
$75.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.031
Bilal Coulibaly
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$67.67
Floor
$63.00
Mint 75
Hit 1.05%Wt 0.069
Amen Thompson
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$39.78
Floor
$25.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.35%Wt 0.023
Scoot Henderson
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$35.67
Floor
$15.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.81%Wt 0.054
Toumani Camara
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$30.60
Floor
$34.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.031
Dereck Lively II
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$27.00
Floor
$30.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.062
Cason Wallace
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$26.10
Floor
$29.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.81%Wt 0.054
Keyonte George
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$26.07
Floor
$21.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.70%Wt 0.046
Chet Holmgren
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$8.66
Floor
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.169
Brandon Miller
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$6.85
Floor
$6.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.97%Wt 0.131