What's your collection worth?Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.

NBA Top Shot · Pack #1205

Rookie Revelation 2023-24

Name: Rookie Revelation 2023-24
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 1499 USD

Legendary9 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $293/pack▼ 68% below the $925 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $925 askTypical pull ≈ $7.74 · grail premium $285 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$925] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

466

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

4,194

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$5,742

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$383

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $293/packvs realized $206 avg · $193 median · $251 p90(0.70×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 11 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Victor Wembanyama · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	0.36%	$2,700	30.2%
Amen Thompson · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	1.46%	$439	19.6%
Victor Wembanyama

Sealed pack resale

Median $600 (90d)Last $600 · 24d agoRetail $925563 sales · 5 in 90d

trades 0.65× retail — secondary discount

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$925

Actual EV

$293

Net −$632 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $925 ask

Typical Pull

$7.74

Grail premium $285 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.32x

-68.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $925 ask

FMV coverage

100%

91 editions

Depletion

86%

pool · as of 1d ago

Packs remaining

122

of 843 minted · as of 1d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 1d ago

14%unopened

122 / 843 packs

Legendary126 / 895 (14%)

103 per 100 sealed packs · launch 106 · ≈ launch rate

Rare97 / 631 (15%)

80 per 100 sealed packs · launch 75 · ≈ launch rate

Common875 / 6,051 (14%)

Pull odds by tier

9 slots/pack · as of 1d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	126 / 895	11%	~1 in 2
Rare	97 / 631	8.8%	~1 in 2
Common	875 / 6,051	80%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 9 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 91 of 91 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@pablogamer2013	$899.00	190d ago
@Steef	$875.00	159d ago
@Steef	$875.00	160d ago
@Steef	$875.00	181d ago
@pablogamer2013	$875.00	185d ago
@Steef	$874.00	181d ago
@Steef	$850.00	63d ago
@pablogamer2013	$850.00	185d ago
@Steef	$825.00	90d ago
@Steef	$825.00	101d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Steef	$600.00	24d ago
@Steef	$600.00	25d ago
@NBATopShotBreaks	$600.00	45d ago
@Steef	$850.00

Rookie Revelation 2023-24

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV