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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1209
Orlando Magic Pack February
Common2 slots
Pack price
$2.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.61 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $7.00
Typical Pull
$1.00
Grail premium $0.61 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $7.00
FMV coverage
100%
22 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
131
of 3,312 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19d ago4.0%unopened
Rare6 / 127 (4.7%)
Common256 / 6,497 (3.9%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 19d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 6 / 127 | 2.3% | ~1 in 22 |
| Common | 256 / 6,497 | 98% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 22 of 22 (100%)Paolo Banchero
Rookie Debut
COMMON5
FMV
$14.30
Floor
$11.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Orlando Magic 3 Pointer
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 500
Hit 2.87%Wt 0.046
Jalen Suggs
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$3.42
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Cole Anthony
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$1.30
Floor
$0.35
Mint 16,000
Hit 2.39%Wt 0.038
Dwight Howard
Archive Set
COMMON3
FMV
$1.05
Floor
$1.00
Mint 20,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Caleb Houstan
Rookie Debut
COMMON5
FMV
$0.98
Floor
$0.88
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Franz Wagner
Rising Stars
COMMON4
FMV
$0.96
Floor
$0.80
Mint 17,500
Hit 2.39%Wt 0.038
Nikola Vučević
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.88
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.88%Wt 0.221
Jonathan Isaac
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.66
Floor
$0.44
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.91%Wt 0.031
Wendell Carter Jr.
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.63
Floor
$0.37
Mint 5,555
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Franz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.57
Floor
$0.55
Mint 8,500
Hit 7.66%Wt 0.122
Goga Bitadze
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.57
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.18%Wt 0.115
Elfrid Payton
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.56
Floor
$0.40
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.39%Wt 0.038
Franz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.28
Mint 16,000
Hit 25.84%Wt 0.412
Cole Anthony
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.40
Mint 8,500
Hit 15.31%Wt 0.244
Moritz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.49
Floor
$0.40
Mint 8,000
Hit 6.22%Wt 0.099
Wendell Carter Jr.
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.26
Mint 16,000
Hit 4.31%Wt 0.069
Jalen Suggs
Extra Spice
COMMON4
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.30
Mint 6,500
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Chuma Okeke
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.30
Mint 40,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Markelle Fultz
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.27
Mint 16,000
Hit 2.87%Wt 0.046
Jalen Suggs
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.26
Mint 16,000
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.008
Moritz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 0.96%Wt 0.015