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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1226
Rookie Revelation First Rip
Common6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$69.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $15.93 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $69.00
Typical Pull
$1.80
Grail premium $14.13 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $69.00
FMV coverage
100%
54 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
18
of 473 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago3.8%unopened
Legendary1 / 1 (100%)
Rare2 / 49 (4.1%)
Common105 / 2,788 (3.8%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 1 | 0.9% | ~1 in 18 |
| Rare | 2 / 49 | 1.9% | ~1 in 9 |
| Common | 105 / 2,788 | 97% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 54 of 54 (100%)Scoot Henderson
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$226
Floor
$145
Mint 75
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Brandin Podziemski
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$16.67
Floor
$13.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Miami Heat 3 Pointer
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$6.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Jarace Walker
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.97
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
GG Jackson
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.93
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Rayan Rupert
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.82
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Paolo Banchero
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.73
Floor
$0.69
Mint 8,500
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Jordan Hawkins
Rookie Debut
COMMON6
FMV
$0.67
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.009
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Crunch Time
COMMON6
FMV
$0.59
Floor
$0.49
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Al Horford
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.51
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.63%Wt 0.046
Mikal Bridges
Crunch Time
COMMON6
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.23
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Nikola Jokić
Crunch Time
COMMON6
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.23
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028
Bojan Bogdanović
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 1.85%Wt 0.019
Ziaire Williams
Crunch Time
COMMON6
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Lauri Markkanen
Crunch Time
COMMON6
FMV
$0.39
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Killian Hayes
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.42
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Isaac Okoro
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.26
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.56%Wt 0.056
Bruno Fernando
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Jalen Smith
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.28
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028
Aaron Wiggins
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.56%Wt 0.056
Keldon Johnson
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037
Nikola Jović
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.26
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028
James Harden
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028
Khris Middleton
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028