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Home › NBA Top Shot › Orlando Magic 2024 Playoff Pack NBA Top Shot · Pack #1269
Orlando Magic 2024 Playoff Pack Fandom
Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$40.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value. Actual EV
—
≈ $8.76 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $40.00
Typical Pull
$8.10
Grail premium $0.66 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $40.00
FMV coverage
100%
7 editions
Depletion
95%
pool · as of 66d ago
Packs remaining
44
of 887 minted · as of 66d ago
Packs Content Remaining pool · as of 66d ago
Pull odds by tier per pack · as of 66d ago Tier Remaining % of pool Odds / pack Legendary 1 / 10 0.8% — Rare 8 / 175 6.1% — Fandom 88 / 1,774 67% — Common 35 / 702 27% —
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside FMV priced 7 of 7 (100%) FMV ↓ Mint ↑ Series ↓ A → Z
Load 24 more
▸ Exhausted / pulled out (33)
💬 Orlando Magic 2024 Playoff Pack — Fandom Pack · Odds, Pulls & EV | NBA Top Shot | Rip Packs City
Observed pack lifecycle Packs opened
164
attributed rips · sample
Moments pulled
488
from opened packs
Realized pull value
$90.62
total, priced pulls
Avg / pack
$15.10
per pack we could price
EV reality check Modeled $8.76 /pack vs realized $7.34 avg · $4.63 median · $16.22 p90 (0.84×)
Model tracks actual pulls · 13 attributed opens
What drives the remaining EV Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.
⚠ 95% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.
Edition Tier Pull % FMV EV share Orlando Magic · The Champion's Path 2024 FANDOM 47.31% $8.10 43.7% Orlando Magic · The Champion's Path 2024 FANDOM 47.31% $7.20 38.9% Derrick Rose · Run It Back: Legacies 2014-19 LEGENDARY 1.07% $85.00 10.4% Magic Johnson · Run It Back 1986-87
EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.
Sealed pack resale Last $25.00 · 2y ago Retail $19.00 157 sales
Dale Ellis · Run It Back 1986-87 RARE 1.07% $8.60 1.1%
Sales History secondary pack sales Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.
Top pulls by EV top 7 of 7 Player Set Tier Drop % FMV Edition EV Orlando Magic The Champion's Path 2024 FANDOM 47.31% $8.10 — Orlando Magic The Champion's Path 2024 FANDOM 47.31% $7.20 — Derrick Rose Run It Back: Legacies 2014-19 LEGENDARY 1.08%
116d ago
Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 9/21/2026, 9:13:00 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.