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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1427

Anthology Quick Rip

Name: Anthology Quick Rip
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 9 USD

Common4 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $2.12/pack▼ 62% below the $5.55 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.55 askTypical pull ≈ $0.80 · grail premium $1.32 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.55] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,156

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

16,624

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$165

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.89

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $2.12/packvs realized $1.11 avg · $0.82 median · $0.87 p90(0.52×)

Calibrated estimate $1.58/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 29 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Steph Curry · The Anthology: Steph Curry	RARE	0.45%	$30.00	25.5%
LeBron James · The Anthology: LeBron James	RARE	0.32%	$35.00	20.9%
Larry Bird

Sealed pack resale

Median $5.00 (90d)Last $5.55 · 1mo agoRetail $5.553,794 sales · 19 in 90d

trades ~0.90× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.55

Actual EV

$2.12

Net −$3.43 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.55 ask

Typical Pull

$0.80

Grail premium $1.32 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.38x

-61.8% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.55 ask

FMV coverage

100%

24 editions

Depletion

88%

pool · as of 2d ago

Packs remaining

1,501

of 12,040 minted · as of 2d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 2d ago

12%unopened

1,501 / 12,040 packs

Legendary0 / 4 (0.0%)

0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.03

Rare73 / 598 (12%)

4.9 per 100 sealed packs · launch 5.0 · ≈ launch rate

Common5,931 / 47,558 (12%)

Pull odds by tier

4 slots/pack · as of 2d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	0 / 4	0.0%	depleted
Rare	73 / 598	1.2%	~1 in 21
Common	5,931 / 47,558	99%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 4 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

RareHit 0.13%

Larry Bird

The Anthology: Larry Bird

$35.00

RareHit 0.32%

LeBron James

The Anthology: LeBron James

$35.00

RareHit 0.45%

Steph Curry

The Anthology: Steph Curry

$30.00

RareHit 0.32%

Kevin Durant

The Anthology: Kevin Durant

What's Inside

FMV priced 24 of 24 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Cheitib78	$6.00	40d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	42d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	51d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	51d ago
@Standish	$6.00	86d ago
@faraway_elderberry6965	$6.00	96d ago
@Standish	$6.00	98d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	98d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	98d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	98d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@BobbyLancaster	$5.55	37d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	40d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	42d ago
@Cheitib78	$5.55

Anthology Quick Rip

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV