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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1538

Got Game (Series 1, Drop 3)

Common3 slots

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Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$250] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 81% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Ivica Zubac · Got Game	COMMON	23.68%	$13.00	21.9%
Marcus Smart · Got Game	COMMON	15.79%	$18.90	21.2%
Damion Lee · Got Game	COMMON	10.53%	$19.55	14.6%
Derrick Rose · Got Game	COMMON	7.90%	$23.40	13.1%
Josh Jackson · Got Game	COMMON	7.90%	$18.00	10.1%
Steph Curry · Base Set	COMMON	5.26%	$16.23	6.1%
LeBron James · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$21.33	4.0%
Jalen Brunson · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$12.90	2.4%
Karl-Anthony Towns · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$6.00	1.1%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$5.71	1.1%
Zion Williamson · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$5.00	0.9%
Jaylen Brown · Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$4.00	0.7%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

$9.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $42.22 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $250

Typical Pull

$39.00

Grail premium $3.22 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $250

FMV coverage

100%

17 editions

Depletion

98%

pool · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,450 minted · as of 66d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 66d ago

1.7%unopened

25 / 1,450 packs

Common75 / 4,350 (1.7%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 66d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Common	75 / 4,350	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 17 of 17 (100%)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 17

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Ivica Zubac	Got Game	COMMON	23.68%	$13.00	$9.24
Marcus Smart	Got Game	COMMON	15.79%	$18.90	$8.95
Damion Lee	Got Game	COMMON	10.53%	$19.55	$6.17
Derrick Rose	Got Game	COMMON	7.89%	$23.40	$5.54
Josh Jackson	Got Game	COMMON	7.89%	$18.00	$4.26
Steph Curry	Base Set	COMMON	5.26%	$16.23	$2.56
LeBron James	Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$21.33	$1.68
Jalen Brunson	Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$12.90	$1.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$6.00	$0.47
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Base Set	COMMON	2.63%	$5.71	$0.45

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 9/21/2026, 11:13:00 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.