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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1582

Toronto Raptors Pack (Summer 2024)

Common2 slots

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Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$8.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 34% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
RJ Barrett · Base Set	COMMON	40.68%	$0.20	23.0%
Toronto Raptors · Squad Goals	RARE	1.70%	$4.67	22.4%
Jakob Poeltl · Base Set	COMMON	11.86%	$0.34	11.4%
Jonas Valančiūnas · Archive Set	COMMON	13.56%	$0.26	10.0%
RJ Barrett · Throwdowns	RARE	0.85%	$4.14	9.9%
Terrence Ross · Archive Set	COMMON	11.86%	$0.28	9.4%
Precious Achiuwa · Base Set	COMMON	6.78%	$0.21	4.0%
Malachi Flynn · Base Set	COMMON	2.54%	$0.34	2.4%
Jakob Poeltl · Base Set	COMMON	2.54%	$0.27	1.9%
Norman Powell · Archive Set 2014-19	COMMON	1.70%	$0.26	1.2%
Christian Koloko · Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.85%	$0.44	1.1%
Scottie Barnes · Base Set	COMMON	1.70%	$0.18	0.9%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

$2.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $0.71 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (91% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $8.00

Typical Pull

$0.42

Grail premium $0.29 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (91% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $8.00

FMV coverage

100%

16 editions

Depletion

91%

pool · as of 32d ago

Packs remaining

of 657 minted · as of 32d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 32d ago

9.0%unopened

59 / 657 packs

Rare3 / 27 (11%)

Common115 / 1,287 (8.9%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 32d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	3 / 27	2.5%	~1 in 20
Common	115 / 1,287	97%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 16 of 16 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 16

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
RJ Barrett	Base Set	COMMON	40.68%	$0.20	$0.16
Toronto Raptors	Squad Goals	RARE	1.69%	$4.67	$0.16
Jakob Poeltl	Base Set	COMMON	11.86%	$0.34	$0.08
Jonas Valančiūnas	Archive Set	COMMON	13.56%	$0.26	$0.07
RJ Barrett	Throwdowns	RARE	0.85%	$4.14	$0.07
Terrence Ross	Archive Set	COMMON	11.86%	$0.28	$0.07
Precious Achiuwa	Base Set	COMMON	6.78%	$0.21	$0.03
Malachi Flynn	Base Set	COMMON	2.54%	$0.34	$0.02
Jakob Poeltl	Base Set	COMMON	2.54%	$0.27	$0.01
Norman Powell	Archive Set 2014-19	COMMON	1.69%	$0.26	$0.01

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 9/21/2026, 6:13:00 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.