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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1584

Chicago Bulls Pack (Summer 2024)

Common2 slots

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Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$6.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$4.44

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.89

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 30% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Nikola Vučević · Throwdowns	RARE	3.13%	$5.35	29.9%
Alex Caruso · Throwdowns	RARE	3.13%	$4.14	23.1%
DeMar DeRozan · Base Set	COMMON	15.63%	$0.27	7.5%
DeMar DeRozan · Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.29	4.9%
Nikola Vučević · Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.28	4.7%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $5.00 · 2y agoRetail $2.009 sales

Pack price

$2.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $1.12 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $6.00

Typical Pull

$0.54

Grail premium $0.58 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $6.00

FMV coverage

100%

16 editions

Depletion

97%

pool · as of 29d ago

Packs remaining

of 770 minted · as of 29d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 29d ago

2.7%unopened

21 / 770 packs

Rare2 / 35 (5.7%)

Common40 / 1,505 (2.7%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 29d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	2 / 35	4.8%	~1 in 11
Common	40 / 1,505	95%	~1 in 1

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 16 of 16 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 16

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Nikola Vučević	Throwdowns	RARE	3.13%	$5.35	$0.33
Alex Caruso	Throwdowns	RARE	3.13%	$4.14	$0.26
DeMar DeRozan	Base Set	COMMON	15.63%	$0.27	$0.08
DeMar DeRozan	Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.29	$0.05
Nikola Vučević	Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.28	$0.05
Dalen Terry	Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.27	$0.05
DeMar DeRozan	Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.26	$0.05
Joakim Noah	Archive Set	COMMON	6.25%	$0.38	$0.05
Coby White	Base Set	COMMON	9.38%	$0.25	$0.05
Coby White	Base Set	COMMON	6.25%	$0.28	$0.04

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 9/21/2026, 4:13:00 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.