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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1586

Houston Rockets Pack (Summer 2024)

Common2 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 48% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
— · Squad Goals	RARE	4.65%	$4.00	30.5%
Jalen Green · Throwdowns	RARE	1.16%	$7.79	14.8%
Fred VanVleet · Base Set	COMMON	31.39%	$0.28	14.4%
Tari Eason · Throwdowns	RARE	1.16%	$4.00	7.6%
Trevor Ariza · Archive Set	COMMON	4.65%	$0.59	4.5%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 2y agoRetail $5.002 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $1.26 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (94% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00

Typical Pull

$0.66

Grail premium $0.60 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (94% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00

FMV coverage

100%

17 editions

Depletion

94%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 663 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 7h ago

6.5%unopened

43 / 663 packs

Rare6 / 47 (13%)

Common80 / 1,279 (6.3%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 7h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	6 / 47	7.0%	~1 in 7
Common	80 / 1,279	93%	~1 in 1

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 17 of 17 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 17

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Squad Goals	Squad Goals	RARE	0.22%	$4.00	$0.02
Jalen Green	Throwdowns	RARE	0.05%	$7.79	$0.01
Fred VanVleet	Base Set	COMMON	1.46%	$0.28	$0.01
Tari Eason	Throwdowns	RARE	0.05%	$4.00	<$0.01
Trevor Ariza	Archive Set	COMMON	0.22%	$0.59	<$0.01
Alperen Şengün	Base Set	COMMON	0.38%	$0.28	<$0.01
Jock Landale	Base Set	COMMON	0.38%	$0.26	<$0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	Base Set	COMMON	0.32%	$0.30	<$0.01
Dillon Brooks	Base Set	COMMON	0.27%	$0.36	<$0.01
Josh Smith	Archive Set	COMMON	0.22%	$0.40	<$0.01

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 7:13:11 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.