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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1593

Orlando Magic Pack (Summer 2024)

Common2 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Paolo Banchero · Base Set	COMMON	27.78%	$0.73	35.1%
Caleb Houstan · Rookie Debut	COMMON	11.11%	$0.98	18.9%
Franz Wagner · Base Set	COMMON	11.11%	$0.57	11.0%
Franz Wagner · Base Set	COMMON	11.11%	$0.50	9.6%
Moritz Wagner · Base Set	COMMON	16.67%	$0.30	8.7%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 1y agoRetail $5.006 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $1.16 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00

Typical Pull

$1.14

Grail premium $0.02 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00

FMV coverage

100%

9 editions

Depletion

99%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 957 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 16h ago

0.9%unopened

9 / 957 packs

Rare0 / 34 (0.0%)

Common18 / 1,880 (1.0%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 16h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	0 / 34	0.0%	depleted
Common	18 / 1,880	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 9 of 9 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 9 of 9

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Paolo Banchero	Base Set	COMMON	6.17%	$0.73	$0.09
Caleb Houstan	Rookie Debut	COMMON	2.47%	$0.98	$0.05
Franz Wagner	Base Set	COMMON	2.47%	$0.57	$0.03
Franz Wagner	Base Set	COMMON	2.47%	$0.50	$0.02
Moritz Wagner	Base Set	COMMON	3.70%	$0.30	$0.02
Jalen Suggs	Base Set	COMMON	1.23%	$0.50	$0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	Base Set	COMMON	1.23%	$0.44	$0.01
Markelle Fultz	Base Set	COMMON	1.23%	$0.41	$0.01
Chuma Okeke	Base Set	COMMON	1.23%	$0.39	$0.01

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 7:31:36 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.