🏠 HOME 🔍 SEARCH ⚡ SNIPER 👤 MY STUFF 🗂 COLLECTIONS LIVE
⚡ COLLECTION ANALYZER — FMV + marketplace asks + badge intel ⚡ PACK EV CALCULATOR — expected value vs price ⚡ SNIPER — real-time deals below FMV ⚡ BADGE FILTERS — filter any view by Top Shot Debut · Fresh · Rookie Year ⚡ SET TRACKER — completion + bottleneck finder ⚡ COLLECTION ANALYZER — FMV + marketplace asks + badge intel ⚡ PACK EV CALCULATOR — expected value vs price ⚡ SNIPER — real-time deals below FMV ⚡ BADGE FILTERS — filter any view by Top Shot Debut · Fresh · Rookie Year ⚡ SET TRACKER — completion + bottleneck finder
What's your collection worth? Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.
Home › NBA Top Shot › Arcade Pack NBA Top Shot · Pack #1606
Arcade Pack Common 4 slots
Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value. Pack price
Primary SOLD OUT
Secondary $5.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.22 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00
Typical Pull
$0.88
Grail premium $0.34 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $5.00
FMV coverage
100%
649 editions
Depletion
98%
pool · as of 66d ago
Packs remaining
353
of 14,991 minted · as of 66d ago
Packs Content Remaining pool · as of 66d ago Common 1,393 / 59,108 (2.4%)
Pull odds by tier 4 slots/pack · as of 66d ago Tier Remaining % of pool Odds / pack Legendary 0 / 23 0.0% depleted Rare 19 / 832 1.3% ~1 in 19 Fandom 0 / 1 0.0% depleted Common 1,393 / 59,108 99% ~every pack
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 4 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases highest-FMV pulls in this pack Couldn't load this pack's contents. The rest of the page is accurate — only this panel is missing. Reload to try again. 💬 Observed pack lifecycle Packs opened
8,108
attributed rips · sample
Moments pulled
31,277
from opened packs
Realized pull value
$1,211
total, priced pulls
Avg / pack
$1.09
per pack we could price
EV reality check Modeled $1.22 /pack vs realized $8.17 avg · $5.60 median · $24.59 p90 (6.70×)
Calibrated estimate $3.46 /pack model blended toward observed pulls
Model under-values vs actual pulls · 19 attributed opens
What drives the remaining EV Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.
Sealed pack resale Last $4.00 · 4mo ago Retail $5.00 7,720 sales
— · Squad Goals RARE 0.08% $5.00 1.3%
— · Squad Goals RARE 0.08% $5.00 1.3%
— · Squad Goals RARE 0.08% $4.25 1.1%
EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.
Sales History secondary pack sales Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.
Top pulls by EV top 10 of 649 27d ago
Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 9/21/2026, 12:25:00 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.
