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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1621
Celebration of Stars: Hot Pack (Wave 4)
Rare3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$19.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.18 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $19.00
Typical Pull
$1.05
Grail premium $1.13 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $19.00
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
95%
live pool
Packs remaining
1,420
of 28,159 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20m ago5.0%unopened
Rare62 / 1,297 (4.8%)
Common11,978 / 83,456 (14%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 20m ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 62 / 1,297 | 0.5% | ~1 in 65 |
| Common | 11,978 / 83,456 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)LeBron James
Video Game Numbers
RARE5
FMV
$35.20
Floor
$25.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.29%Wt 0.004
James Harden
Video Game Numbers
RARE5
FMV
$12.60
Floor
$14.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.006
Luka Dončić
Throwdowns
RARE5
FMV
$9.67
Floor
$9.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.92%Wt 0.011
Andrew Nembhard
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$6.80
Floor
$8.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.40%Wt 0.005
Saddiq Bey
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$5.50
Floor
$5.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.006
Bam Adebayo
Throwdowns
RARE5
FMV
$5.19
Floor
$4.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.006
Kevin Huerter
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.58%Wt 0.007
Max Strus
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$2.98
Floor
$0.23
Mint 12,000
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Wendell Carter Jr.
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.63
Floor
$0.37
Mint 5,555
Hit 6.52%Wt 0.08
Keldon Johnson
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.62
Floor
$0.69
Mint 15,500
Hit 0.46%Wt 0.006
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.49
Floor
$0.35
Mint 16,000
Hit 14.48%Wt 0.177
Nikola Vučević
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 3.58%Wt 0.044
Trae Young
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 12,000
Hit 0.69%Wt 0.008
Jonathan Kuminga
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 15.69%Wt 0.192
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.39
Floor
$0.24
Mint 16,000
Hit 0.92%Wt 0.011
Jordan Clarkson
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.23
Mint 16,000
Hit 15.74%Wt 0.192
Fred VanVleet
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.02
Kyle Lowry
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.22
Mint 16,000
Hit 1.27%Wt 0.015
Darius Garland
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.25
Mint 13,500
Hit 5.82%Wt 0.071
Dwight Powell
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.25
Mint 11,000
Hit 4.56%Wt 0.056
Ben Simmons
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.23
Mint 16,000
Hit 16.61%Wt 0.203
Donte DiVincenzo
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.23
Mint 13,500
Hit 1.27%Wt 0.015
Marcus Smart
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 12,000
Hit 1.38%Wt 0.017
Jerami Grant
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 13,500
Hit 1.21%Wt 0.015