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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1621
Celebration of Stars: Hot Pack (Wave 4)
Rare3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$15.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.14 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.69
Grail premium $0.45 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
123 editions
Depletion
95%
pool · as of 17h ago
Packs remaining
1,416
of 28,159 minted · as of 17h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 17h ago5.0%unopened
Rare62 / 1,297 (4.8%)
4.4 per 100 sealed packs · launch 4.6 · ≈ launch rate
Common4,175 / 83,456 (5.0%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 17h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 62 / 1,297 | 1.5% | ~1 in 23 |
| Common | 4,175 / 83,456 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 123 of 123 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
LeBron James
Reel · Dec 31, 2022
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 4
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$24.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Luka Dončić
Dunk · Dec 17, 2022
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$13.50
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Andrew Nembhard
3 Pointer · Nov 29, 2022
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.17%Wt 0.002
James Harden
Reel · Dec 24, 2022
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.75
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Bam Adebayo
Dunk · Jan 8, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Saddiq Bey
3 Pointer · Jan 5, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Kevin Huerter
3 Pointer · Dec 31, 2022
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.24%Wt 0.002
Steph Curry
Handles · Nov 19, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4Explosion
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Jabari Walker
Layup · Oct 25, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.77
Recent Low
$0.56
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.01
Bryce McGowens
Block · Oct 20, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.69
Recent Low
$0.62
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.35%Wt 0.013
Domantas Sabonis
Layup · Dec 4, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.36
Recent Low
$0.11
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.25%Wt 0.013
Jalen Brunson
Jump Shot · Jan 5, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.33
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
RJ Barrett
Dunk · Dec 18, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.29
Recent Low
$0.10
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.56%Wt 0.016
Jordan Clarkson
Dunk · Nov 5, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.28
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.63%Wt 0.016
Jonathan Kuminga
Dunk · Dec 11, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.51%Wt 0.015
Monte Morris
Handles · Jan 12, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.51%Wt 0.015
Mike Conley
3 Pointer · Jan 19, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.75%Wt 0.017
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Dunk · Nov 8, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.68%Wt 0.017
Zach LaVine
Layup · Nov 29, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017
LaMelo Ball
Assist · Jan 7, 2023
Spotlight Series
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 5,555
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Reggie Jackson
Layup · Nov 30, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.68%Wt 0.017
Evan Mobley
Dunk · Dec 3, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.77%Wt 0.018
Cameron Johnson
Assist · Jan 20, 2023
Spotlight Series
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 5,555
Hit 1.75%Wt 0.017
Aaron Nesmith
Dunk · Dec 30, 2022
Spotlight Series
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 5,555
Hit 1.91%Wt 0.019