Skip to content
LIVE
⚡ COLLECTION ANALYZER — FMV + marketplace asks + badge intel⚡ PACK EV CALCULATOR — expected value vs price⚡ SNIPER — real-time deals below FMV⚡ BADGE FILTERS — filter any view by Top Shot Debut · Fresh · Rookie Year⚡ SET TRACKER — completion + bottleneck finder
RPC›NBA Top Shot
🏀
NBA Top Shot
Dapper Labs · NBA
Flow
What's your collection worth?Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.
Hot Pack XL
NBA Top Shot · Pack #2788

Hot Pack XL

Rare10 slots
Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$33.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$33.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $6.01 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $33.00 ask
Typical Pull
$2.20
Grail premium $3.81 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $33.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
127 editions
Depletion
98%
pool · as of 7h ago
Packs remaining
464
of 23,545 minted · as of 7h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 7h ago
2.0%unopened
464 / 23,545 packs
Rare197 / 9,036 (2.2%)
42 per 100 sealed packs · launch 38 · 1.1× launch rate
Common4,439 / 226,584 (2.0%)

Pull odds by tier

10 slots/pack · as of 7h ago
TierRemaining% of poolOdds / pack
Rare197 / 9,0364.2%~1 in 3
Common4,439 / 226,58496%~every pack
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 127 of 127 (100%)
Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant
3 Pointer · Mar 2, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$18.00
Recent Low
$13.50
Mint 425
Hit 0.17%Wt 0.002
Josh Hart
Josh Hart
3 Pointer · Feb 12, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$13.99
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Reel · Dec 31, 2022
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 4
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.003
Mikal Bridges
Mikal Bridges
Jump Shot · Feb 11, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$8.38
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.24%Wt 0.002
Jalen Duren
Jalen Duren
Dunk · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$7.98
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.50%Wt 0.005
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Reel · Feb 11, 2023
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 4
FMV
$6.80
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.17%Wt 0.002
Cameron Johnson
Cameron Johnson
Assist · Feb 11, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$6.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Jarred Vanderbilt
Jarred Vanderbilt
Dunk · Feb 12, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Julius Randle
Julius Randle
Dunk · Jan 22, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Lauri Markkanen
Lauri Markkanen
Dunk · Dec 31, 2022
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.30%Wt 0.003
Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler
Dunk · Feb 11, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.45%Wt 0.005
Dillon Brooks
Dillon Brooks
Block · Jan 19, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.54%Wt 0.005
Tre Mann
Tre Mann
Dunk · Jan 26, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Norman Powell
Norman Powell
Dunk · Feb 5, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.28%Wt 0.003
Keegan Murray
Keegan Murray
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$3.95
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Markelle Fultz
Markelle Fultz
Dunk · Feb 15, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.93
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.35%Wt 0.003
D'Angelo Russell
D'Angelo Russell
Jump Shot · Feb 12, 2023
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.17%Wt 0.002
Dyson Daniels
Dyson Daniels
Assist · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.54%Wt 0.005
Tari Eason
Tari Eason
Dunk · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$2.49
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.006
Jake LaRavia
Jake LaRavia
Assist · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.80
Recent Low
$0.67
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.69%Wt 0.007
LeBron James
LeBron James
Assist · Dec 19, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 8,000
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
Caleb Houstan
Caleb Houstan
Block · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.99
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.75%Wt 0.008
Max Christie
Max Christie
3 Pointer · Oct 19, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.97
Recent Low
$0.76
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.006
AJ Griffin
AJ Griffin
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2022
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.84
Recent Low
$0.32
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.60%Wt 0.006