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NBA Top Shot · Pack #3581

Stephen vs Sabrina 3-Point Challenge - Sabrina Ionescu

Name: Stephen vs Sabrina 3-Point Challenge - Sabrina Ionescu
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 5 USD

Common1 slot

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $0.30/pack▼ 90% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 askTypical pull ≈ $0.23 · value evenly spread

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.35

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.23

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
LeBron James · Base Set	COMMON	6.02%	$0.86	17.1%
Anthony Edwards · Base Set	COMMON	7.90%	$0.25	6.5%
Steph Curry · Base Set	COMMON	3.76%	$0.44	5.5%
Luka Dončić · Base Set	COMMON	2.26%	$0.55	4.1%
Luka Dončić

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 8mo agoRetail $3.0022 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$3.00

Actual EV

$0.30

Net −$2.70 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Typical Pull

$0.23

Grail premium $0.07 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

0.10x

-90.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

60 editions

Depletion

85%

pool · as of 11h ago

Packs remaining

266

of 1,767 minted · as of 11h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 11h ago

15%unopened

266 / 1,767 packs

Common266 / 1,767 (15%)

Pull odds by tier

1 slots/pack · as of 11h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Common	266 / 1,767	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
LeBron James	Base Set	COMMON	0.02%	$0.86	<$0.01
Anthony Edwards	Base Set	COMMON	0.03%	$0.25	<$0.01
Steph Curry	Base Set	COMMON	0.01%	$0.44	<$0.01
Luka Dončić	Base Set	COMMON	0.01%	$0.55	<$0.01
Luka Dončić	Base Set	COMMON	0.01%	$0.47	<$0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Base Set	COMMON	0.02%	$0.23	<$0.01
Nikola Jokić	Base Set	COMMON	0.02%	$0.24	<$0.01
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Base Set	COMMON	0.01%	$0.32	<$0.01
Tyrese Haliburton	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$0.74	<$0.01
Trae Young	Base Set	COMMON	0.02%	$0.19	<$0.01

Stephen vs Sabrina 3-Point Challenge - Sabrina Ionescu

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV