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NBA Top Shot · Pack #3867

WNBA Quick Rip

Name: WNBA Quick Rip
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 5 USD

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $0.86/pack▼ 88% below the $6.99 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.99 askTypical pull ≈ $0.60 · value evenly spread

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$6.99] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

7,642

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

22,926

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$167

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.87

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $0.86/packvs realized $0.69 avg · $0.63 median · $0.69 p90(0.80×)

Calibrated estimate $0.72/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 75 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Nika Mühl · WNBA Rookie Debut 2024	COMMON	1.32%	$2.00	9.3%
Caitlin Clark · WNBA Rookie Debut 2024	COMMON	0.01%	$125	5.4%
Aaliyah Edwards

Sealed pack resale

Median $6.99 (90d)Last $6.99 · 29d agoRetail $6.998,295 sales · 5 in 90d

trades ~1.00× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$6.99

Actual EV

$0.86

Net −$6.13 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.99 ask

Typical Pull

$0.60

Grail premium $0.26 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

0.12x

-87.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.99 ask

FMV coverage

100%

47 editions

Depletion

87%

pool · as of 16h ago

Packs remaining

2,694

of 20,000 minted · as of 16h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 16h ago

13%unopened

2,694 / 20,000 packs

Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)

0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.01

Legendary4 / 40 (10%)

0.15 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.20 · 0.7× launch rate

Rare29 / 249 (12%)

1.1 per 100 sealed packs · launch 1.2 · 0.9× launch rate

Common8,049 / 59,710 (13%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 16h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Ultimate	0 / 1	0.0%	depleted
Legendary	4 / 40	<0.1%	~1 in 674
Rare	29 / 249	0.4%	~1 in 93
Common	8,049 / 59,710	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

CommonHit 0.01%

Caitlin Clark

WNBA Rookie Debut 2024

$125

LegendaryHit 0.01%

Aaliyah Edwards

WNBA Rookie Revelation

WNBA Rookie Revelation

What's Inside

FMV priced 47 of 47 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@inmypants	$8.00	136d ago
@Quintenchen	$8.00	137d ago
@Quintenchen	$8.00	137d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago
@JDBStealth	$8.00	155d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@splendid_dalmatian5322	$6.99	29d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.99	67d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.99	67d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.60

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Nika Mühl	WNBA Rookie Debut 2024	COMMON	0.00%	$2.00	<$0.01
Caitlin Clark	WNBA Rookie Debut 2024	COMMON	0.00%	$125	<$0.01

WNBA Quick Rip

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV