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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4041

LeBron James Instant Moment - October 22, 2024

Rare1 slot

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $37.00/pack▼ 46% below the $69.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (84% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $69.00Typical pull ≈ $37.00 · value evenly spread

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$69.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$35.92

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$35.92

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
LeBron James · Metallic Gold LE	RARE	100.00%	$37.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $185 · 2y agoRetail $69.0084 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$69.00

Actual EV

$37.00

Net −$32.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (84% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $69.00

Typical Pull

$37.00

Median pull ≈ Actual EV — value evenly spread

Value ratio

0.54x

-46.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (84% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $69.00

FMV coverage

100%

1 editions

Depletion

84%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 200 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 12h ago

16%unopened

32 / 200 packs

Rare32 / 200 (16%)

Pull odds by tier

1 slots/pack · as of 12h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	32 / 200	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 1 of 1 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 1 of 1

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
LeBron James	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	3.13%	$37.00	$1.16

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 10:37:31 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.