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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4307
Dec 2, 2024 Premium Pack
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$44.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $14.86 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $44.00
Typical Pull
$3.15
Grail premium $11.71 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $44.00
FMV coverage
100%
39 editions
Depletion
97%
live pool
Packs remaining
90
of 2,799 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 17h ago3.2%unopened
Legendary5 / 100 (5.0%)
Rare91 / 2,799 (3.3%)
Common359 / 11,096 (3.2%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 17h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 5 / 100 | 1.1% | ~1 in 19 |
| Rare | 91 / 2,799 | 20% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 359 / 11,096 | 79% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 39 of 39 (100%)Russell Westbrook
NBA Cup
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$57.60
Floor
$64.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.011
Alperen Şengün
Holo Icon
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$57.50
Floor
$52.00
Mint 50
Hit 0.78%Wt 0.033
Julius Randle
Holo Icon
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$46.00
Floor
$43.00
Mint 50
Hit 0.26%Wt 0.011
LeBron James
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$16.55
Floor
$1.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.04%Wt 0.044
Jordan Clarkson
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$11.05
Floor
$13.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.056
Damian Lillard
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$10.80
Floor
$12.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.56%Wt 0.067
Giannis Antetokounmpo
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$9.90
Floor
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.60%Wt 0.111
Jayson Tatum
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$6.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.60%Wt 0.111
Nikola Jović
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$5.83
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.82%Wt 0.078
Isaiah Hartenstein
Fresh Threads
RARE7
FMV
$5.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 2.34%Wt 0.1
Jonathan Isaac
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$5.22
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.12%Wt 0.133
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.50
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.16%Wt 0.178
Jaylen Brown
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.056
Chris Paul
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.82%Wt 0.078
Kyshawn George
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.28
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.78%Wt 0.033
Baylor Scheierman
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$2.86
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.34%Wt 0.1
Jaylon Tyson
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.95
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.34%Wt 0.1
Dario Šarić
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.63
Floor
$0.51
Mint 1,500
Hit 4.68%Wt 0.2
Trendon Watford
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.60
Floor
$0.70
Mint 1,500
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.222
Jaden Hardy
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.56
Floor
$0.50
Mint 1,500
Hit 6.75%Wt 0.289
Tyrese Maxey
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.54
Floor
$0.64
Mint 1,500
Hit 4.68%Wt 0.2
Steph Curry
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.35
Mint 1,500
Hit 5.71%Wt 0.244
De'Andre Hunter
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.30
Mint 1,500
Hit 5.97%Wt 0.256
Al Horford
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.25
Mint 1,500
Hit 6.49%Wt 0.278