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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4351
Dec 6, 2024 Premium Pack
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$35.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $9.50 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $35.00
Typical Pull
$2.65
Grail premium $6.85 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $35.00
FMV coverage
100%
39 editions
Depletion
97%
live pool
Packs remaining
102
of 3,695 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 21h ago2.8%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
Legendary1 / 30 (3.3%)
Rare100 / 3,685 (2.7%)
Common404 / 14,758 (2.7%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 21h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 1 / 30 | 0.2% | ~1 in 101 |
| Rare | 100 / 3,685 | 20% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 404 / 14,758 | 80% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 39 of 39 (100%)Jimmy Butler
Holo Icon
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$62.50
Floor
$50.00
Mint 50
Hit 0.20%Wt 0.01
Luka Dončić
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$13.60
Floor
$16.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.40%Wt 0.02
Lauri Markkanen
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$13.18
Floor
$13.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.39%Wt 0.069
Ja Morant
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$8.50
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.19%Wt 0.059
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$7.65
Floor
$9.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.19%Wt 0.059
Naz Reid
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$7.60
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.049
Jaylen Brown
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$5.95
Floor
$7.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.58%Wt 0.078
Shaedon Sharpe
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.56
Floor
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.049
Jalen Suggs
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.29
Floor
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.19%Wt 0.059
Nikola Vučević
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.049
Payton Pritchard
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$4.67
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.118
Drew Eubanks
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$4.02
Floor
$3.00
Mint 1,500
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.118
Bradley Beal
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$3.71
Floor
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.118
Jaden Ivey
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.98%Wt 0.098
Alperen Şengün
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.78%Wt 0.088
Scottie Barnes
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.049
Cade Cunningham
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$1.25
Floor
$0.99
Mint 1,500
Hit 2.18%Wt 0.108
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$1.06
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.17%Wt 0.157
Goga Bitadze
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$1.00
Floor
$1.00
Mint 1,500
Hit 4.95%Wt 0.245
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.86
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.76%Wt 0.186
Johnny Furphy
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.86
Floor
$0.35
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.17%Wt 0.157
Nikola Vučević
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.71
Floor
$0.79
Mint 1,500
Hit 3.37%Wt 0.167
Santi Aldama
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.62
Floor
$0.69
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.76%Wt 0.186
James Harden
NBA Cup
COMMON7
FMV
$0.53
Floor
$0.59
Mint 1,500
Hit 4.36%Wt 0.216