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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4477
Freshman Gems, December 2024
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$108
Actual EV
—
≈ $55.24 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $108 ask
Typical Pull
$10.00
Grail premium $45.24 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $108 ask
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 22h ago
Packs remaining
9
of 900 minted · as of 22h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 22h ago1.0%unopened
Ultimate0 / 8 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.89
Rare20 / 2,125 (0.9%)
222 per 100 sealed packs · launch 236 · ≈ launch rate
Common25 / 2,367 (1.1%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 22h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 8 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 20 / 2,125 | 44% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 25 / 2,367 | 56% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Stephon Castle
Assist · Dec 9, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$150
Recent Low
$125
Mint 199
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Kyshawn George
3 Pointer · Nov 5, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$22.00
Recent Low
$20.00
Mint 199
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Kyle Filipowski
Assist · Nov 9, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$17.00
Recent Low
$36.98
Mint 199
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Zaccharie Risacher
3 Pointer · Nov 7, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 199
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Dalton Knecht
Dunk · Nov 30, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$14.50
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 199
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Jamison Battle
3 Pointer · Nov 28, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$17.99
Mint 199
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Antonio Reeves
Layup · Nov 21, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.50
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 199
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Franz Wagner
Block · Nov 14, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.88
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Ivica Zubac
Dunk · Nov 5, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Donovan Clingan
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.90
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Terance Mann
Dunk · Nov 19, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 8.89%Wt 0.089
Ajay Mitchell
Assist · Oct 25, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Draymond Green
Dunk · Dec 9, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Brook Lopez
Block · Nov 14, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Jaylen Wells
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Kyle Filipowski
Layup · Oct 30, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.91
Recent Low
$0.40
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Antonio Reeves
3 Pointer · Nov 4, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.76
Recent Low
$0.23
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Branden Carlson
Floater · Nov 26, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.40
Mint 4,000
Hit 20.00%Wt 0.2
Cam Christie
Dunk · Dec 5, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.55
Recent Low
$0.40
Mint 4,000
Hit 22.22%Wt 0.222