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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4477
Freshman Gems, December 2024
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$108
Actual EV
—
≈ $123 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $108
Typical Pull
$35.00
Grail premium $88.38 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $108
FMV coverage
100%
15 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
10
of 900 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20h ago1.1%unopened
Ultimate0 / 8 (0.0%)
Rare20 / 2,125 (0.9%)
Common25 / 2,367 (1.1%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 20h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 8 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 20 / 2,125 | 44% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 25 / 2,367 | 56% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 15 of 15 (100%)Stephon Castle
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$164
Floor
$121
Mint 199
Hit 8.70%Wt 0.2
Kyle Filipowski
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$28.50
Floor
$23.00
Mint 199
Hit 8.70%Wt 0.2
Kyshawn George
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$19.25
Floor
$12.00
Mint 199
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Zaccharie Risacher
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$18.75
Floor
$13.00
Mint 199
Hit 13.04%Wt 0.3
Antonio Reeves
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$11.67
Floor
$8.00
Mint 199
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Dalton Knecht
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$10.20
Floor
$12.00
Mint 199
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Draymond Green
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$7.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 8.70%Wt 0.2
Jamison Battle
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$6.80
Floor
$8.00
Mint 199
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Terance Mann
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$6.33
Floor
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 17.39%Wt 0.4
Franz Wagner
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$5.18
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Ivica Zubac
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.08
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Brook Lopez
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.32
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Donovan Clingan
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$4.04
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Ajay Mitchell
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.05
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1
Jaylen Wells
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.95
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.35%Wt 0.1