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NBA Top Shot · Pack #454
Base Set (Series 3, Release 4)
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$3.16
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.41 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.16
Typical Pull
$0.84
Grail premium $0.57 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.16
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
97%
live pool
Packs remaining
7,916
of 265,954 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 13h ago3.0%unopened
Common35,225 / 797,861 (4.4%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 13h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 35,225 / 797,861 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)Scottie Barnes
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$18.70
Floor
$15.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.02%Wt 0
Jalen Johnson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$8.88
Floor
$6.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.07%Wt 0
Franz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$6.79
Floor
$5.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.12%Wt 0.006
Alperen Şengün
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$5.51
Floor
$4.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.15%Wt 0.006
Josh Giddey
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$3.38
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.07%Wt 0
Ayo Dosunmu
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$2.14
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Tre Mann
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.52
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.32%Wt 0.007
Greg Brown III
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.39
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.07%Wt 0.005
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.10
Mint 60,000
Hit 15.77%Wt 0.08
Cole Anthony
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.15
Mint 60,000
Hit 2.42%Wt 0.012
Alex Caruso
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 4.84%Wt 0.025
Derrick Rose
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.11
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.60%Wt 0.008
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.77%Wt 0.009
Javonte Green
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.26
Mint 60,000
Hit 2.12%Wt 0.011
Hassan Whiteside
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 12.87%Wt 0.065
Lamar Stevens
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 12.57%Wt 0.064
Tristan Thompson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.25
Mint 60,000
Hit 5.99%Wt 0.03
Killian Hayes
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 2.00%Wt 0.01
Jarrett Allen
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.97%Wt 0.01
Jordan Clarkson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 11.10%Wt 0.056
Mo Bamba
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.24
Mint 60,000
Hit 5.66%Wt 0.029
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.22
Mint 60,000
Hit 5.24%Wt 0.027
Jimmy Butler
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.19
Mint 60,000
Hit 2.62%Wt 0.013
Anfernee Simons
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 4.59%Wt 0.023