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NBA Top Shot · Pack #459
Rookie Debut (Series 1, Drop 2)
Rare9 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$388
Actual EV
—
≈ $212 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (93% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $388
Typical Pull
$154
Grail premium $57.98 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (93% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $388
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
93%
live pool
Packs remaining
161
of 2,250 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19h ago7.2%unopened
Rare483 / 6,750 (7.2%)
Common966 / 13,500 (7.2%)
Pull odds by tier
9 slots/pack · as of 19h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 483 / 6,750 | 33% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 966 / 13,500 | 67% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 9 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)Jalen Brunson
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$160
Floor
$117
Mint 299
Hit 0.71%Wt 0.019
Russell Westbrook
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$67.50
Floor
$75.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.031
OG Anunoby
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$65.21
Floor
$22.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.94%Wt 0.025
RJ Barrett
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$46.80
Floor
$52.00
Mint 250
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.137
Jarrell Brantley
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$42.30
Floor
$47.00
Mint 250
Hit 3.54%Wt 0.093
Darius Garland
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$41.40
Floor
$46.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.068
Derrick Rose
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$40.50
Floor
$45.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.42%Wt 0.037
Rui Hachimura
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$36.67
Floor
$27.00
Mint 250
Hit 4.48%Wt 0.118
Jamal Murray
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$33.15
Floor
$39.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.043
Bam Adebayo
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$32.00
Floor
$28.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.07%Wt 0.081
Mikal Bridges
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$29.67
Floor
$17.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.031
Marcus Smart
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$23.40
Floor
$26.00
Mint 299
Hit 7.08%Wt 0.186
CJ McCollum
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$25.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.54%Wt 0.093
Jrue Holiday
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$25.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.42%Wt 0.037
Ky Bowman
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$22.33
Floor
$13.00
Mint 250
Hit 4.72%Wt 0.124
Al Horford
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$20.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.043
Svi Mykhailiuk
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$17.10
Floor
$19.00
Mint 299
Hit 5.42%Wt 0.143
Mike Conley
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$17.10
Floor
$19.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.89%Wt 0.05
Jordan McLaughlin
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$16.33
Floor
$12.00
Mint 250
Hit 4.25%Wt 0.112
Eric Paschall
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$16.00
Floor
$12.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.30%Wt 0.087
De'Andre Hunter
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$15.60
Floor
$11.00
Mint 250
Hit 4.48%Wt 0.118
Bismack Biyombo
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$12.75
Floor
$15.00
Mint 299
Hit 5.90%Wt 0.155
Dillon Brooks
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$11.90
Floor
$14.00
Mint 299
Hit 4.48%Wt 0.118
Luguentz Dort
Rookie Debut
RARE1
FMV
$11.25
Floor
$11.00
Mint 250
Hit 4.95%Wt 0.13