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NBA Top Shot · Pack #460

Run It Back 2013-14 (Series 1, Drop 2)

Rare9 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$500] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 35% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Run It Back	RARE	5.88%	$225	31.8%
Carmelo Anthony · Run It Back	RARE	11.77%	$86.15	24.3%
Brook Lopez · Run It Back	RARE	23.53%	$25.00	14.1%
Dennis Schröder · Run It Back	RARE	11.77%	$30.00	8.5%
Giannis Antetokounmpo · MVP Moves	RARE	5.88%	$30.60	4.3%
Giannis Antetokounmpo · MVP Moves	RARE	5.88%	$23.50	3.3%
Victor Oladipo · Run It Back	RARE	5.88%	$20.70	2.9%
Giannis Antetokounmpo · MVP Moves	RARE	5.88%	$16.20	2.3%
Steph Curry · Base Set	COMMON	5.88%	$16.19	2.3%
Giannis Antetokounmpo · MVP Moves	RARE	5.88%	$16.17	2.3%
Giannis Antetokounmpo · MVP Moves	RARE	5.88%	$15.38	2.2%
Zion Williamson · Base Set	COMMON	5.88%	$12.35	1.7%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$500

Actual EV

—

≈ $375 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $500

Typical Pull

$225

Grail premium $150 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $500

FMV coverage

100%

12 editions

Depletion

99%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 732 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 19h ago

0.7%unopened

5 / 732 packs

Rare15 / 2,196 (0.7%)

Common30 / 4,392 (0.7%)

Pull odds by tier

9 slots/pack · as of 19h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	15 / 2,196	33%	~1 in 1
Common	30 / 4,392	67%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 9 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

RareHit 5.88%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

What's Inside

FMV priced 12 of 12 (100%)

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 12

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Run It Back	RARE	4.00%	$225	$81.06
Carmelo Anthony	Run It Back	RARE	8.00%	$86.15	$62.03
Brook Lopez	Run It Back	RARE	16.00%	$25.00	$36.00
Dennis Schröder	Run It Back	RARE	8.00%	$30.00	$21.60
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MVP Moves	RARE	4.00%	$30.60	$11.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MVP Moves	RARE	4.00%	$23.50	$8.46
Victor Oladipo	Run It Back	RARE	4.00%	$20.70	$7.45
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MVP Moves	RARE	4.00%	$16.20	$5.83
Steph Curry	Base Set	COMMON	4.00%	$16.19	$5.83
Giannis Antetokounmpo	MVP Moves	RARE	4.00%	$16.17	$5.82

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 4:37:37 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.