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NBA Top Shot · Pack #461
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 2, Wave 2/5)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$388
Actual EV
$409
Net +$21.49 vs ask · EV last computed 25 days ago — not a current read; treat it as historical
Typical Pull
$152
Grail premium $257 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
1.06x
5.5% margin · EV last computed 25 days ago — not a current read; treat it as historical
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
82%
pool · as of 24d ago
Packs remaining
270
of 1,492 minted · as of 24d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 24d ago18%unopened
Rare270 / 1,492 (18%)
Common1,349 / 7,457 (18%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 24d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 270 / 1,492 | 17% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 1,349 / 7,457 | 83% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)Nikola Jokić
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$349
Floor
$345
Mint 299
Hit 9.79%Wt 0.122
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$156
Floor
$121
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$130
Floor
$125
Mint 1,431
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$128
Floor
$111
Mint 1,430
Hit 2.97%Wt 0.037
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$92.35
Floor
$81.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 4.15%Wt 0.052
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$71.17
Floor
$62.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
De'Aaron Fox
Metallic Gold LE
RARE0
FMV
$58.00
Floor
$45.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.37%Wt 0.03
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$52.33
Floor
$51.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
Carmelo Anthony
Metallic Gold LE
RARE0
FMV
$43.50
Floor
$30.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.48%Wt 0.019
Kyrie Irving
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$43.41
Floor
$36.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.033
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$40.36
Floor
$35.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 2.97%Wt 0.037
OG Anunoby
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$35.00
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 2.37%Wt 0.03
Devin Booker
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$26.57
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 4.15%Wt 0.052
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$26.54
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.044
Jarrett Allen
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$26.10
Floor
$29.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.044
RJ Barrett
Metallic Gold LE
RARE0
FMV
$26.10
Floor
$29.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.78%Wt 0.022
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$25.71
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
Kawhi Leonard
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$23.55
Floor
$19.00
Mint 1,256
Hit 2.08%Wt 0.026
Anthony Davis
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$22.38
Floor
$21.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 2.97%Wt 0.037
Damian Lillard
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$21.30
Floor
$20.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.033
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$20.07
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.37%Wt 0.03
James Harden
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$18.60
Floor
$13.00
Mint 1,012
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.033
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$16.23
Floor
$13.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.044
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$12.90
Floor
$12.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 3.86%Wt 0.048