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NBA Top Shot · Pack #461
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 2, Wave 2/5)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$388
Actual EV
$467
Net +$78.81 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (82% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $388
Typical Pull
$171
Grail premium $296 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
1.20x
20.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (82% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $388
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
82%
live pool
Packs remaining
270
of 1,492 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 11h ago18%unopened
Rare270 / 1,492 (18%)
Common1,349 / 7,457 (18%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 11h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 270 / 1,492 | 17% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 1,349 / 7,457 | 83% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)Nikola Jokić
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$401
Floor
$445
Mint 299
Hit 9.97%Wt 0.122
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$168
Floor
$153
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$145
Floor
$111
Mint 1,430
Hit 3.02%Wt 0.037
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$133
Floor
$121
Mint 1,431
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$102
Floor
$99.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 4.23%Wt 0.052
De'Aaron Fox
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$90.00
Floor
$100
Mint 299
Hit 2.42%Wt 0.03
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$71.50
Floor
$65.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$66.69
Floor
$65.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
OG Anunoby
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$48.14
Floor
$14.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 2.42%Wt 0.03
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$40.81
Floor
$39.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 3.02%Wt 0.037
Kyrie Irving
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$40.57
Floor
$35.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.72%Wt 0.033
RJ Barrett
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$38.70
Floor
$43.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.81%Wt 0.022
Tyler Herro
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$36.60
Floor
$33.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Jarrett Allen
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$34.20
Floor
$38.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.63%Wt 0.044
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$33.77
Floor
$27.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Carmelo Anthony
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$30.00
Floor
$29.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.51%Wt 0.019
Devin Booker
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$28.50
Floor
$28.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 4.23%Wt 0.052
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$27.82
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 3.63%Wt 0.044
Damian Lillard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$24.36
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 2.72%Wt 0.033
Anthony Davis
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$23.08
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 3.02%Wt 0.037
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.38
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.42%Wt 0.03
Kawhi Leonard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.25
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,256
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.026
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$17.88
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 3.93%Wt 0.048
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$16.19
Floor
$13.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 3.63%Wt 0.044