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NBA Top Shot · Pack #461
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 2, Wave 2/5)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$388
Actual EV
$94.26
Net −$294 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $388 ask
Typical Pull
$12.00
Grail premium $82.26 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
0.24x
-75.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 82% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $388 ask
FMV coverage
100%
192 editions
Depletion
82%
pool · as of 42m ago
Packs remaining
270
of 1,492 minted · as of 42m ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 42m ago18%unopened
Rare270 / 1,492 (18%)
100 per 100 sealed packs · launch 100 · ≈ launch rate
Common1,349 / 7,457 (18%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 42m ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 270 / 1,492 | 17% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 1,349 / 7,457 | 83% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 192 of 192 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Nikola Jokić
Handles · Dec 30, 2019
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 1
FMV
$306
Recent Low
$325
Mint 299
Hit 2.04%Wt 0.02
LeBron James
Dunk · Feb 7, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$168
Recent Low
$121
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
Luka Dončić
Dunk · Mar 12, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$143
Recent Low
$126
Mint 1,431
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
Nikola Jokić
Handles · Dec 30, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$125
Recent Low
$123
Mint 1,430
Hit 0.62%Wt 0.006
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Handles · Oct 27, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$82.00
Recent Low
$80.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
Ja Morant
Dunk · Dec 12, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$59.00
Recent Low
$58.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
Jayson Tatum
Handles · Nov 21, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$59.00
Recent Low
$50.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
De'Aaron Fox
Layup · Nov 2, 2019
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 1
FMV
$56.70
Recent Low
$63.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Kyrie Irving
Handles · Oct 27, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$40.50
Recent Low
$39.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.006
Jaylen Brown
Handles · Dec 25, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$36.00
Recent Low
$34.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 0.62%Wt 0.006
Jarrett Allen
Block · Jan 8, 2020
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 1
FMV
$32.00
Recent Low
$32.49
Mint 299
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Zion Williamson
Block · Jan 25, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$29.00
Recent Low
$23.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
RJ Barrett
Layup · Oct 24, 2019
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 1
FMV
$26.10
Recent Low
$29.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Donovan Mitchell
Block · Oct 26, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$24.00
Recent Low
$21.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Devin Booker
Block · Nov 28, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$21.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
Domantas Sabonis
Dunk · Dec 31, 2019
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 1
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$15.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Kawhi Leonard
Dunk · Nov 21, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$21.00
Mint 1,256
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.004
OG Anunoby
Block · Oct 27, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$22.00
Recent Low
$16.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Damian Lillard
Dunk · Oct 24, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$21.00
Recent Low
$17.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.006
Anthony Davis
Dunk · Jan 2, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$20.50
Recent Low
$19.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 0.62%Wt 0.006
Steph Curry
3 Pointer · Mar 6, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$18.00
Recent Low
$17.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Jamal Murray
Dunk · Dec 28, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$17.00
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 0.99%Wt 0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Dunk · Mar 1, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$16.50
Recent Low
$15.00
Mint 1,012
Hit 0.68%Wt 0.007
Jalen Brunson
3 Pointer · Dec 7, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 0.80%Wt 0.008