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NBA Top Shot · Pack #464
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 2, Wave 5/5)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$348
Actual EV
$275
Net −$72.76 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $348
Typical Pull
$147
Grail premium $129 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
0.79x
-20.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $348
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
89%
live pool
Packs remaining
171
of 1,491 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 9h ago11%unopened
Rare171 / 1,491 (11%)
Common855 / 7,454 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 9h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 171 / 1,491 | 17% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 855 / 7,454 | 83% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$180
Floor
$153
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$132
Floor
$121
Mint 1,431
Hit 6.40%Wt 0.064
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$112
Floor
$111
Mint 1,430
Hit 4.65%Wt 0.047
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$102
Floor
$99.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.029
De'Aaron Fox
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$90.00
Floor
$100
Mint 299
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$72.00
Floor
$60.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$67.18
Floor
$66.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 1.74%Wt 0.018
OG Anunoby
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$47.25
Floor
$14.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 4.65%Wt 0.047
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$41.21
Floor
$40.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 4.07%Wt 0.041
RJ Barrett
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$38.70
Floor
$43.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Kyrie Irving
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$37.50
Floor
$37.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Tyler Herro
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$36.60
Floor
$33.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Jarrett Allen
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$34.20
Floor
$38.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$33.63
Floor
$27.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 1.74%Wt 0.018
Devin Booker
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$28.50
Floor
$28.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$27.82
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Pascal Siakam
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$26.33
Floor
$21.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.74%Wt 0.018
Damian Lillard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$24.44
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 4.07%Wt 0.041
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$23.63
Floor
$22.00
Mint 299
Hit 4.07%Wt 0.041
Anthony Davis
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$23.08
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,431
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Aaron Gordon
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$25.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
De'Aaron Fox
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.93
Floor
$15.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.029
James Harden
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$14.86
Floor
$11.00
Mint 1,012
Hit 5.81%Wt 0.058