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NBA Top Shot · Pack #470
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 3, Wave 2/2)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$375
Actual EV
—
≈ $151 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $375
Typical Pull
$107
Grail premium $43.60 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $375
FMV coverage
100%
23 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
30
of 3,411 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 18h ago0.9%unopened
Rare30 / 3,411 (0.9%)
Common158 / 17,055 (0.9%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 18h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 30 / 3,411 | 16% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 158 / 17,055 | 84% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 23 of 23 (100%)Jalen Brunson
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$160
Floor
$117
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Russell Westbrook
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$67.50
Floor
$75.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Chris Paul
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$36.00
Floor
$23.00
Mint 299
Hit 12.82%Wt 0.167
Paul George
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$35.55
Floor
$39.50
Mint 299
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Jamal Murray
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$33.15
Floor
$39.00
Mint 299
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Serge Ibaka
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$19.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$20.40
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,113
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$17.89
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Collin Sexton
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$17.71
Floor
$15.00
Mint 299
Hit 12.82%Wt 0.167
De'Andre Hunter
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$17.00
Floor
$17.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$16.19
Floor
$13.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Eric Paschall
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$16.00
Floor
$12.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Caris LeVert
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$15.00
Floor
$13.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Reggie Bullock
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$14.67
Floor
$14.00
Mint 299
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$13.59
Floor
$11.00
Mint 3,524
Hit 5.13%Wt 0.067
Eric Bledsoe
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$13.50
Floor
$11.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Ish Smith
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$13.00
Floor
$12.00
Mint 299
Hit 7.69%Wt 0.1
Nemanja Bjelica
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$13.00
Floor
$11.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Daniel Theis
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$11.00
Floor
$10.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Thaddeus Young
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$10.20
Floor
$12.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Rudy Gay
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$9.35
Floor
$11.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033
Terence Davis
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$5.18
Floor
$3.00
Mint 1,535
Hit 2.56%Wt 0.033