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NBA Top Shot · Pack #478
Premium Pack (Series 1, Drop 2, Wave 1/5)
Rare6 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$398
Actual EV
$445
Net +$46.66 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (84% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $398
Typical Pull
$169
Grail premium $276 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
1.12x
11.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (84% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $398
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
84%
live pool
Packs remaining
232
of 1,492 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19h ago16%unopened
Rare232 / 1,492 (16%)
Common1,160 / 7,460 (16%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 19h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 232 / 1,492 | 17% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 1,160 / 7,460 | 83% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)Luka Dončić
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$354
Floor
$300
Mint 299
Hit 9.82%Wt 0.116
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$180
Floor
$153
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$132
Floor
$121
Mint 1,431
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$112
Floor
$111
Mint 1,430
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$102
Floor
$99.00
Mint 1,359
Hit 4.73%Wt 0.056
De'Aaron Fox
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$90.00
Floor
$100
Mint 299
Hit 1.09%Wt 0.013
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$72.00
Floor
$60.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$67.18
Floor
$66.00
Mint 1,428
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
OG Anunoby
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$47.25
Floor
$14.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$41.21
Floor
$40.00
Mint 1,354
Hit 1.45%Wt 0.017
RJ Barrett
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$38.70
Floor
$43.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.27%Wt 0.039
Kyrie Irving
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$37.50
Floor
$37.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Tyler Herro
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$36.60
Floor
$33.00
Mint 299
Hit 1.45%Wt 0.017
Jarrett Allen
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$34.20
Floor
$38.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$33.63
Floor
$27.00
Mint 1,357
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Carmelo Anthony
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$30.00
Floor
$29.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.91%Wt 0.034
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$27.82
Floor
$25.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 1.82%Wt 0.022
Pascal Siakam
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$26.33
Floor
$21.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.18%Wt 0.026
Damian Lillard
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$24.44
Floor
$22.00
Mint 1,433
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.047
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$23.63
Floor
$22.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
Aaron Gordon
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$25.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.03
Mitchell Robinson
Metallic Gold LE
RARE1
FMV
$22.50
Floor
$25.00
Mint 299
Hit 2.18%Wt 0.026
De'Aaron Fox
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.93
Floor
$15.00
Mint 1,358
Hit 3.64%Wt 0.043
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$17.89
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 3.27%Wt 0.039