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NBA Top Shot · Pack #479
Western Conference Finals (Series 1)
Rare8 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$639
Actual EV
—
≈ $107 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $639
Typical Pull
$78.40
Grail premium $28.22 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $639
FMV coverage
100%
40 editions
Depletion
95%
live pool
Packs remaining
260
of 4,939 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 8h ago5.3%unopened
Rare260 / 4,938 (5.3%)
Common1,820 / 34,573 (5.3%)
Pull odds by tier
8 slots/pack · as of 8h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 260 / 4,938 | 13% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 1,820 / 34,573 | 88% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 8 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 40 of 40 (100%)LeBron James
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$116
Floor
$105
Mint 999
Hit 4.36%Wt 0.108
Alex Caruso
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$23.40
Floor
$26.00
Mint 999
Hit 4.83%Wt 0.119
Vince Carter
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$21.38
Floor
$15.00
Mint 3,336
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.073
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$20.40
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,113
Hit 4.05%Wt 0.1
Jalen Brunson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$17.88
Floor
$17.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 2.65%Wt 0.065
Jamal Murray
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$17.10
Floor
$19.00
Mint 999
Hit 4.98%Wt 0.123
Nikola Jokić
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$15.50
Floor
$13.00
Mint 999
Hit 3.43%Wt 0.085
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$13.60
Floor
$16.00
Mint 3,600
Hit 1.87%Wt 0.046
Luka Dončić
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$13.59
Floor
$11.00
Mint 3,524
Hit 2.65%Wt 0.065
Dwight Howard
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$13.50
Floor
$15.00
Mint 999
Hit 4.21%Wt 0.104
Michael Porter Jr.
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$11.14
Floor
$10.00
Mint 999
Hit 4.21%Wt 0.104
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$11.13
Floor
$7.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 2.34%Wt 0.058
Jamal Murray
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$10.80
Floor
$12.00
Mint 999
Hit 5.61%Wt 0.138
Rajon Rondo
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$9.80
Floor
$9.00
Mint 999
Hit 3.74%Wt 0.092
Andre Iguodala
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$9.44
Floor
$8.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.035
Joel Embiid
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$9.09
Floor
$7.00
Mint 2,987
Hit 1.25%Wt 0.031
Jerami Grant
Western Conference Finals
RARE1
FMV
$8.83
Floor
$8.00
Mint 999
Hit 5.14%Wt 0.127
Trae Young
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$7.67
Floor
$7.00
Mint 2,978
Hit 1.71%Wt 0.042
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$6.77
Floor
$6.00
Mint 3,164
Hit 3.43%Wt 0.085
Zion Williamson
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$5.50
Floor
$5.00
Mint 1,642
Hit 1.56%Wt 0.038
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON0
FMV
$4.89
Floor
$4.00
Mint 3,525
Hit 2.49%Wt 0.062
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$4.68
Floor
$4.00
Mint 2,486
Hit 1.87%Wt 0.046
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$4.20
Floor
$4.00
Mint 2,489
Hit 2.49%Wt 0.062
Kyle Lowry
Base Set
COMMON1
FMV
$2.55
Floor
$3.00
Mint 3,289
Hit 3.43%Wt 0.085