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NBA Top Shot · Pack #480
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 1, App)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$198
Actual EV
—
≈ $31.41 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $198
Typical Pull
$3.80
Grail premium $27.61 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $198
FMV coverage
100%
29 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
17
of 407 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 22h ago4.2%unopened
Rare16 / 407 (3.9%)
Common144 / 3,663 (3.9%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 22h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 16 / 407 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 144 / 3,663 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 0.63%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$163
RareHit 1.25%
Karl-Anthony Towns
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$24.14
RareHit 0.63%
Domantas Sabonis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$20.45
RareHit 2.50%
Ben Simmons
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$19.67
RareHit 1.25%
Andrew Wiggins
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$18.50
What's Inside
FMV priced 29 of 29 (100%)Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$163
Floor
$150
Mint 399
Hit 0.63%Wt 0.059
Karl-Anthony Towns
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$24.14
Floor
$22.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.25%Wt 0.118
Domantas Sabonis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$20.45
Floor
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.63%Wt 0.059
Ben Simmons
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$19.67
Floor
$7.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.235
Andrew Wiggins
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.50
Floor
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.25%Wt 0.118
Bam Adebayo
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.43
Floor
$15.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.63%Wt 0.059
Lauri Markkanen
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.63%Wt 0.059
Brandon Ingram
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$11.90
Floor
$14.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.88%Wt 0.176
Malcolm Brogdon
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$8.50
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.63%Wt 0.059
Kyle Lowry
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$1.64
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.75%Wt 0.353
Josh Hart
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.57
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.87%Wt 0.647
Collin Sexton
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.28
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.25%Wt 0.588
Spencer Dinwiddie
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.43
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.13%Wt 0.294
Ricky Rubio
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.471
Tony Allen
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.471
Derrick Jones Jr.
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.39
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.471
Al Horford
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.24
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.87%Wt 0.647
Malik Monk
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.13%Wt 0.294
Bojan Bogdanović
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.27
Mint 4,500
Hit 11.87%Wt 1.118
Raymond Felton
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.13%Wt 0.294
Paul Millsap
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.235
LaMarcus Aldridge
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.471
Matt Barnes
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.13%Wt 0.294
Deron Williams
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.12%Wt 1.235