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NBA Top Shot · Pack #481
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 1, Web)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$197
Actual EV
—
≈ $20.53 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $197
Typical Pull
$3.60
Grail premium $16.93 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (97% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $197
FMV coverage
100%
26 editions
Depletion
97%
live pool
Packs remaining
13
of 407 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19h ago3.2%unopened
Rare12 / 407 (2.9%)
Common108 / 3,663 (2.9%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 19h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 12 / 407 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 108 / 3,663 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 0.83%
Karl-Anthony Towns
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$24.14
RareHit 0.83%
Domantas Sabonis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$19.48
RareHit 0.83%
Andrew Wiggins
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$18.50
RareHit 2.50%
Bam Adebayo
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$18.43
RareHit 1.67%
Lauri Markkanen
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$18.00
What's Inside
FMV priced 26 of 26 (100%)Karl-Anthony Towns
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$24.14
Floor
$22.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.077
Domantas Sabonis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$19.48
Floor
$17.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.077
Andrew Wiggins
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.50
Floor
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.077
Bam Adebayo
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.43
Floor
$15.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.231
Lauri Markkanen
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$18.00
Floor
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.154
Brandon Ingram
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$11.90
Floor
$14.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.154
Malcolm Brogdon
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$10.50
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.154
Kevin Love
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$1.00
Floor
$0.58
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.17%Wt 0.385
Josh Hart
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.57
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.17%Wt 0.385
Collin Sexton
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.55
Floor
$0.53
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.538
Spencer Dinwiddie
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.28
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.231
Tony Allen
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.35
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.308
Derrick Jones Jr.
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.43
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.308
Ricky Rubio
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.615
Malik Monk
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.462
Al Horford
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.24
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.17%Wt 0.385
Bojan Bogdanović
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.27
Mint 4,500
Hit 8.33%Wt 0.769
John Wall
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.615
Raymond Felton
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.538
Paul Millsap
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.17%Wt 0.385
Serge Ibaka
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.231
LaMarcus Aldridge
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.615
Matt Barnes
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.538
Deron Williams
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 4,500
Hit 8.33%Wt 0.769