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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4869
Denied! February 2025
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$26.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $13.46 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $26.00
Typical Pull
$4.55
Grail premium $8.91 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $26.00
FMV coverage
100%
30 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
68
of 1,720 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19h ago4.0%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
Rare136 / 3,440 (4.0%)
Common204 / 5,158 (4.0%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 19h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 136 / 3,440 | 40% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 204 / 5,158 | 60% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 30 of 30 (100%)LeBron James
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$17.50
Floor
$13.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.221
Peyton Watson
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.99
Floor
$4.50
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.221
Daniel Gafford
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.70
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 5.29%Wt 0.265
Mark Williams
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.66
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.82%Wt 0.191
Jordan Hawkins
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.47
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.82%Wt 0.191
Isaiah Stewart
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.46
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.25
Ivica Zubac
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.42
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.221
Clint Capela
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.06
Floor
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.221
Kristaps Porziņģis
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.221
Cam Spencer
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.97
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.059
Devin Carter
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.16
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.074
LeBron James
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$1.06
Floor
$1.00
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.76%Wt 0.088
Yuki Kawamura
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.02
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.88%Wt 0.044
Anthony Black
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.99
Floor
$0.50
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.059
Quinten Post
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.91
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.71%Wt 0.235
Justin Edwards
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.60
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 10.88%Wt 0.544
Luke Travers
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.53
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.074
Jayson Tatum
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.48
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.76%Wt 0.088
Reece Beekman
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.46
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 17.35%Wt 0.868
Kevin Durant
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.65%Wt 0.132
Anthony Davis
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.22
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.103
DeMar DeRozan
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.22
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.35%Wt 0.118
Myles Turner
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.23
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.103
Buddy Hield
Crunch Time
COMMON7
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.32
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.76%Wt 0.088