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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4869
Denied! February 2025
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$19.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $11.20 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $19.00 ask
Typical Pull
$4.50
Grail premium $6.70 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $19.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
30 editions
Depletion
96%
pool · as of 9h ago
Packs remaining
68
of 1,720 minted · as of 9h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 9h ago4.0%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.12
Rare136 / 3,440 (4.0%)
200 per 100 sealed packs · launch 200 · ≈ launch rate
Common204 / 5,158 (4.0%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 9h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 136 / 3,440 | 40% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 204 / 5,158 | 60% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 30 of 30 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
LeBron James
Block · Dec 16, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.50
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044
Ivica Zubac
Block · Jan 17, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044
Peyton Watson
Block · Jan 19, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.81
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044
Kristaps Porziņģis
Block · Jan 8, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.99
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044
Daniel Gafford
Block · Dec 22, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 5.29%Wt 0.053
Isaiah Stewart
Block · Jan 4, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.05
Clint Capela
Block · Jan 10, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044
Jordan Hawkins
Block · Dec 23, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.82%Wt 0.038
Mark Williams
Block · Dec 31, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.82%Wt 0.038
Devin Carter
Assist · Jan 4, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.48
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Cam Spencer
3 Pointer · Dec 9, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.55
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.012
Quinten Post
3 Pointer · Jan 24, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.71%Wt 0.047
LeBron James
3 Pointer · Nov 17, 2024
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.76%Wt 0.018
Luke Travers
Block · Nov 1, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.90
Recent Low
$0.32
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Yuki Kawamura
Assist · Dec 30, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.64
Recent Low
$0.63
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.88%Wt 0.009
Reece Beekman
Block · Jan 4, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,000
Hit 17.35%Wt 0.174
Justin Edwards
Layup · Nov 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.65
Mint 4,000
Hit 10.88%Wt 0.109
Enrique Freeman
Block · Oct 25, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.45
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.012
Anthony Black
3 Pointer · Oct 28, 2024
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.55
Recent Low
$0.44
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.18%Wt 0.012
Kevin Durant
Jump Shot · Jan 18, 2025
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.65%Wt 0.026
Anthony Davis
3 Pointer · Oct 27, 2024
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
DeMar DeRozan
Dunk · Jan 4, 2025
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.14
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.35%Wt 0.024
Myles Turner
3 Pointer · Nov 17, 2024
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
Buddy Hield
3 Pointer · Nov 7, 2024
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.76%Wt 0.018