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NBA Top Shot · Pack #495
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 2, Web)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$1,007
Actual EV
—
≈ $23.92 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $1,007
Typical Pull
$4.40
Grail premium $19.52 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $1,007
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
28
of 778 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 18h ago3.6%unopened
Rare27 / 778 (3.5%)
Common243 / 7,002 (3.5%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 18h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 27 / 778 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 243 / 7,002 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 1.11%
Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$46.83
RareHit 1.48%
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$27.86
RareHit 2.96%
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$17.00
RareHit 2.59%
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$13.00
RareHit 1.85%
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$11.29
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$46.83
Floor
$41.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.11%Wt 0.107
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$27.86
Floor
$23.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.48%Wt 0.143
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$17.00
Floor
$12.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.286
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$13.00
Floor
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.25
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$11.29
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.85%Wt 0.179
Kevin Love
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$1.00
Floor
$0.58
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.429
Jerami Grant
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.58
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.70%Wt 1.321
John Collins
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.39
Mint 4,500
Hit 12.59%Wt 1.214
Spencer Dinwiddie
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.28
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.56%Wt 0.536
J.J. Barea
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 12.59%Wt 1.214
Ricky Rubio
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.357
Malik Monk
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 8.52%Wt 0.821
Derrick Favors
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.93%Wt 0.571
Anfernee Simons
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.5
Nenê
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.429
John Wall
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.321
Paul Millsap
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.5
Serge Ibaka
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.07%Wt 0.393
Matt Barnes
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.071