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NBA Top Shot · Pack #495
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 2, Web)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$1,007
Actual EV
—
≈ $17.85 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1,007 ask
Typical Pull
$3.00
Grail premium $14.85 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $1,007 ask
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
97%
pool · as of 6h ago
Packs remaining
27
of 778 minted · as of 6h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 6h ago3.5%unopened
Rare27 / 778 (3.5%)
100 per 100 sealed packs · launch 100 · ≈ launch rate
Common243 / 7,002 (3.5%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 6h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 27 / 778 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 243 / 7,002 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 1.11%
Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$30.00
RareHit 1.48%
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$20.00
RareHit 2.96%
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$13.00
RareHit 1.85%
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$10.00
RareHit 2.59%
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$10.00
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Jaylen Brown
Layup · May 16, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$30.00
Recent Low
$28.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.11%Wt 0.011
Joel Embiid
Block · Jan 14, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$20.00
Recent Low
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.48%Wt 0.015
Kristaps Porziņģis
Dunk · Nov 7, 2015
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.03
Zach LaVine
3 Pointer · Apr 12, 2015
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.026
Dejounte Murray
Assist · Jan 20, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.85%Wt 0.019
Anfernee Simons
Assist · Apr 11, 2019
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.052
Kevin Love
3 Pointer · May 8, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Jerami Grant
Dunk · Feb 1, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.46
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.70%Wt 0.137
Malik Monk
Layup · Apr 4, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.31
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 8.52%Wt 0.085
John Collins
Dunk · Mar 29, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 12.59%Wt 0.126
Derrick Favors
Layup · Dec 6, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.93%Wt 0.059
J.J. Barea
Jump Shot · Dec 24, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 12.59%Wt 0.126
Paul Millsap
Jump Shot · Apr 9, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.19%Wt 0.052
Nenê
Layup · Apr 23, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.10
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Serge Ibaka
3 Pointer · Apr 17, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.07%Wt 0.041
Matt Barnes
3 Pointer · Dec 10, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dunk · Mar 1, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.56%Wt 0.056
John Wall
Layup · Dec 25, 2014
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Ricky Rubio
Assist · Mar 25, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.70%Wt 0.037