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NBA Top Shot · Pack #496
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 2, App)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$99.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $19.24 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $99.00 ask
Typical Pull
$3.00
Grail premium $16.24 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $99.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
96%
pool · as of 4h ago
Packs remaining
29
of 777 minted · as of 4h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 4h ago3.7%unopened
Rare28 / 777 (3.6%)
97 per 100 sealed packs · launch 100 · ≈ launch rate
Common252 / 6,993 (3.6%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 4h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 28 / 777 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 252 / 6,993 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 1.79%
Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$30.00
RareHit 1.43%
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$20.00
RareHit 2.86%
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$13.00
RareHit 3.21%
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$10.00
RareHit 0.71%
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$10.00
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Jaylen Brown
Layup · May 16, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$30.00
Recent Low
$28.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.79%Wt 0.018
Joel Embiid
Block · Jan 14, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$20.00
Recent Low
$18.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Kristaps Porziņģis
Dunk · Nov 7, 2015
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.86%Wt 0.029
Dejounte Murray
Assist · Jan 20, 2017
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.21%Wt 0.032
Zach LaVine
3 Pointer · Apr 12, 2015
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.71%Wt 0.007
Anfernee Simons
Assist · Apr 11, 2019
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.79%Wt 0.068
Kevin Love
3 Pointer · May 8, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.05
Jerami Grant
Dunk · Feb 1, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.46
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 12.86%Wt 0.129
Malik Monk
Layup · Apr 4, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.31
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.79%Wt 0.068
John Collins
Dunk · Mar 29, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 11.79%Wt 0.118
Derrick Favors
Layup · Dec 6, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.71%Wt 0.057
J.J. Barea
Jump Shot · Dec 24, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.21%Wt 0.132
Paul Millsap
Jump Shot · Apr 9, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.64%Wt 0.046
Nenê
Layup · Apr 23, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.10
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.36%Wt 0.054
Serge Ibaka
3 Pointer · Apr 17, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.29%Wt 0.043
Matt Barnes
3 Pointer · Dec 10, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 1.07%Wt 0.011
John Wall
Layup · Dec 25, 2014
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.29%Wt 0.043
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dunk · Mar 1, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Ricky Rubio
Assist · Mar 25, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.64%Wt 0.046