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NBA Top Shot · Pack #496
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19 (Release 2, App)
Rare10 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$99.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $26.68 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $99.00
Typical Pull
$4.40
Grail premium $22.28 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $99.00
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
29
of 777 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 18h ago3.7%unopened
Rare29 / 777 (3.7%)
Common261 / 6,993 (3.7%)
Pull odds by tier
10 slots/pack · as of 18h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 29 / 777 | 10% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 261 / 6,993 | 90% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 10 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
RareHit 2.07%
Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$46.83
RareHit 1.38%
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$27.86
RareHit 2.76%
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$17.00
RareHit 0.69%
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$13.00
RareHit 3.10%
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
$11.29
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Jaylen Brown
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$46.83
Floor
$41.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.07%Wt 0.207
Joel Embiid
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$27.86
Floor
$23.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.38%Wt 0.138
Kristaps Porziņģis
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$17.00
Floor
$12.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.76%Wt 0.276
Zach LaVine
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$13.00
Floor
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.69%Wt 0.069
Dejounte Murray
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARE5
FMV
$11.29
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.10%Wt 0.31
Kevin Love
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$1.00
Floor
$0.58
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.83%Wt 0.483
Jerami Grant
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.58
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.10%Wt 1.31
John Collins
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.39
Mint 4,500
Hit 11.72%Wt 1.172
Spencer Dinwiddie
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.28
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.345
J.J. Barea
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 13.10%Wt 1.31
Ricky Rubio
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.41
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.83%Wt 0.483
Malik Monk
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.55%Wt 0.655
Anfernee Simons
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.69
Derrick Favors
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.86%Wt 0.586
Nenê
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 5.17%Wt 0.517
John Wall
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.48%Wt 0.448
Paul Millsap
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.83%Wt 0.483
Serge Ibaka
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.14%Wt 0.414
Matt Barnes
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 1.03%Wt 0.103