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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5030

Chasing Throwdowns III: Guaranteed Hit

Rare1 slot

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$70.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

295

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

295

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 100% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Zach Edey · Freshman Gems	RARE	100.00%	$22.10	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $49.00 · 1y agoRetail $70.00343 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$70.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $33.00 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (100% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $70.00

Typical Pull

$33.00

Median pull ≈ Actual EV — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (100% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $70.00

FMV coverage

100%

1 editions

Depletion

100%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 525 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 21h ago

0.2%unopened

1 / 525 packs

Legendary0 / 6 (0.0%)

Rare1 / 519 (0.2%)

Pull odds by tier

1 slots/pack · as of 21h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	0 / 6	0.0%	depleted
Rare	1 / 519	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 1 of 1 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

Top purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@jfreezy	$9.00	101d ago

Recent purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@jfreezy	$9.00	101d ago

Top pulls by EV

top 1 of 1

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Zach Edey	Freshman Gems	RARE	100.00%	$22.10	$22.10

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 10:37:31 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.