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NBA Top Shot · Pack #530

Deck the Hoops: 2010's (Series 3)

Legendary9 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2,500] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$137

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$7.59

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $6,961/packvs realized $7.59 avg · $8.20 median · $8.25 p90(0.00×)

Calibrated estimate $7.57/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 18 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 100% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Kevin Garnett · Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	20.00%	$2,850	73.7%
JJ Redick · Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	10.00%	$879	11.4%
Anthony Davis · Deck the Hoops

Sealed pack resale

Last $2,000 · 2y agoRetail $2,5004 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$2,500

Actual EV

—

≈ $6,961 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2,500

Typical Pull

$146

Grail premium $6,815 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2,500

FMV coverage

100%

9 editions

Depletion

99%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 507 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 46m ago

1.0%unopened

5 / 507 packs

Legendary5 / 507 (1.0%)

Rare5 / 507 (1.0%)

Common86 / 3,549 (2.4%)

Pull odds by tier

9 slots/pack · as of 46m ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	5 / 507	5.2%	~1 in 3
Rare	5 / 507	5.2%	~1 in 3
Common	86 / 3,549	90%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 9 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 9 of 9 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 9 of 9

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Kevin Garnett	Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	8.00%	$2,850	$2,052
JJ Redick	Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	4.00%	$879	$316
Anthony Davis	Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	4.00%	$843	$303
Karl-Anthony Towns	Deck the Hoops	LEGENDARY	4.00%	$270	$97.20
Nikola Jokić	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	4.00%	$16.20	$5.83
Dillon Brooks	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	4.00%	$8.10	$2.92
Anthony Davis	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	4.00%	$7.93	$2.85
CJ McCollum	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	4.00%	$5.75	$2.07
Terry Rozier	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	4.00%	$5.00	$1.80

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/6/2026, 7:07:37 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.