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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5305

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025

Common2 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $17.73/pack▼ 60% below the $44.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $44.00Typical pull ≈ $7.68 · grail premium $10.05 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$44.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,176

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

4,360

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$801

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$16.01

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $17.73/packvs realized $23.35 avg · $12.32 median · $52.38 p90(1.32×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 19 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 27% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Paige Bueckers · WNBA Rookie Debut 2025	COMMON	7.15%	$33.09	26.7%
Paige Bueckers · WNBA Rookie Debut 2025 - Signature Edition	COMMON	0.36%	$455	18.3%
Kiki Iriafen · WNBA Rookie Debut 2025	COMMON	9.65%	$13.10	14.3%
Sonia Citron · WNBA Rookie Debut 2025

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $64.00 (90d)Last $59.00 · 2mo agoRetail $44.002,385 sales · 11 in 90d

trades 1.45× retail — secondary premium

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$44.00

Actual EV

$17.73

Net −$26.27 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $44.00

Typical Pull

$7.68

Grail premium $10.05 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.40x

-59.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $44.00

FMV coverage

100%

15 editions

Depletion

89%

live pool

Packs remaining

424

of 4,006 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 1h ago

11%unopened

424 / 4,006 packs

Common839 / 8,012 (10%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 1h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Common	839 / 8,012	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

CommonHit 0.36%

Paige Bueckers

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025 - Signature Edition

$455

CommonHit 0.24%

Kiki Iriafen

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025 - Signature Edition

$58.08

CommonHit 0.12%

Sarah Ashlee Barker

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025 - Signature Edition

$40.50

CommonHit 7.15%

Paige Bueckers

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025

$33.09

CommonHit 8.82%

Sonia Citron

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025

$13.56

What's Inside

FMV priced 15 of 15 (100%)

Buyer	Sale price	When
@rmrbball3	$67.00	97d ago
@rmrbball3	$67.00	97d ago
@Rewind2001	$67.00	106d ago
@Rewind2001	$67.00	106d ago
@bergzh	$67.00	108d ago
@SpoonyBard	$67.00	109d ago
@DIAM0ND	$66.00	90d ago
@BigDaddaBear	$65.00	83d ago
@KlayChompson	$65.00	84d ago
@DDMF2005	$65.00	86d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@KlayChompson	$59.00	67d ago
@rmrbball3	$59.00	67d ago
@rmrbball3	$59.00	69d ago
@rmrbball3	$58.00	69d ago

WNBA Rookie Debut 2025

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV