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NBA Top Shot · Pack #533
Archive Drop 1 (Web Exclusive)
Common6 slots
Pack price
$39.00
Retail $15.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.18 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $39.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.44
Grail premium $0.74 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $39.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
23 editions
Depletion
97%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
152
of 4,774 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago3.2%unopened
Legendary0 / 7 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.15
Rare1 / 143 (0.7%)
0.66 per 100 sealed packs · launch 3.0 · 0.2× launch rate
Common911 / 28,494 (3.2%)
Pull odds by tier
6 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 7 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 1 / 143 | 0.1% | ~1 in 152 |
| Common | 911 / 28,494 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 23 of 23 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Trae Young
Jump Shot · Mar 31, 2019
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$20.50
Recent Low
$17.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.11%Wt 0.006
Andrew Wiggins
Dunk · Feb 21, 2015
Run It Back: Origins 2014-19
RARESeries 4
FMV
$15.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.11%Wt 0.006
Anfernee Simons
Assist · Apr 11, 2019
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.175
Kevin Love
3 Pointer · May 8, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.175
Josh Hart
3 Pointer · Apr 12, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.49%Wt 0.266
Malik Monk
Layup · Apr 4, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.48
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.63%Wt 0.156
Collin Sexton
Dunk · Mar 9, 2019
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.40
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.13%Wt 0.364
Kyle Lowry
Jump Shot · Feb 27, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.35
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.409
Tony Allen
Steal · May 6, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.24%Wt 0.37
Derrick Favors
Layup · Dec 6, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.94%Wt 0.234
Raymond Felton
Layup · Apr 19, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.24%Wt 0.37
LaMarcus Aldridge
Layup · Dec 20, 2014
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.13%Wt 0.364
Deron Williams
3 Pointer · Jan 6, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.93%Wt 0.292
Al Horford
Jump Shot · Feb 4, 2018
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.11
Mint 4,500
Hit 7.23%Wt 0.429
Derrick Jones Jr.
Dunk · Mar 10, 2019
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.35%Wt 0.377
Paul Millsap
Jump Shot · Apr 9, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.94%Wt 0.234
Matt Barnes
3 Pointer · Dec 10, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.16%Wt 0.247
Nenê
Layup · Apr 23, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.10
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.94%Wt 0.234
Serge Ibaka
3 Pointer · Apr 17, 2016
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.94%Wt 0.234
John Wall
Layup · Dec 25, 2014
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 4.38%Wt 0.26
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dunk · Mar 1, 2015
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.18%Wt 0.188
Bojan Bogdanović
Handles · Nov 4, 2014
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 6.13%Wt 0.364
Ricky Rubio
Assist · Mar 25, 2017
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 2.96%Wt 0.175