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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5888
Top Shot Birthday 2025: Party Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$3.85
Actual EV
$1.91
Net −$1.94 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (86% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.85
Typical Pull
$0.72
Grail premium $1.19 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
0.50x
-50.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (86% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.85
FMV coverage
100%
497 editions
Depletion
86%
pool · as of 66d ago
Packs remaining
3,445
of 25,000 minted · as of 66d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 66d ago14%unopened
Ultimate1 / 2 (50%)
Legendary2 / 20 (10%)
Rare362 / 2,478 (15%)
Common9,946 / 72,500 (14%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 66d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 1 / 2 | <0.1% | ~1 in 3,437 |
| Legendary | 2 / 20 | <0.1% | ~1 in 1,719 |
| Rare | 362 / 2,478 | 3.5% | ~1 in 10 |
| Common | 9,946 / 72,500 | 96% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 497 of 497 (100%)Willis Reed
Heroes of the Game
ULTIMATE7
FMV
$800
Floor
—
Mint 10
Hit 0.01%Wt 0
Scottie Barnes
Holo Icon
LEGENDARY6
FMV
$180
Floor
$200
Mint 50
Hit 0.01%Wt 0
Andrew Wiggins
2022 NBA Finals
LEGENDARY4
FMV
$75.50
Floor
$65.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.01%Wt 0
Anthony Edwards
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$54.00
Floor
$51.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.01%Wt 0
OG Anunoby
Metallic Gold LE
RARE6
FMV
$42.30
Floor
$30.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.01%Wt 0
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.80
Floor
$0.55
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.93%Wt 0.039
Russell Westbrook
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.64%Wt 0.026
Davion Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.19%Wt 0.042
RJ Barrett
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.57%Wt 0.016
Jordan Poole
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.014
Tyus Jones
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.71%Wt 0.017
Amen Thompson
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.22
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Lauri Markkanen
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.10
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.52%Wt 0.015
Brandon Clarke
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.04%Wt 0.04
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.22
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.90%Wt 0.039
Mikal Bridges
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.60%Wt 0.036
Scottie Barnes
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.56%Wt 0.016
Andrew Wiggins
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.23
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.98%Wt 0.04
Tari Eason
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.23
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.32%Wt 0.023
Dejounte Murray
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.23
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.016
Keyonte George
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.23
Floor
$0.05
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.60%Wt 0.016
Bol Bol
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.23
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.52%Wt 0.015
Jabari Smith Jr.
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.22
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.46%Wt 0.025
James Harden
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.21
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.76%Wt 0.028