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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5888

Top Shot Birthday 2025: Party Pack

Name: Top Shot Birthday 2025: Party Pack
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 3 USD

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $1.76/pack▼ 54% below the $3.86 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.86 askTypical pull ≈ $0.60 · grail premium $1.16 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.86] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

3,302

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

9,906

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$901

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.46

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $1.76/packvs realized $1.59 avg · $0.64 median · $3.87 p90(0.90×)

Calibrated estimate $1.21/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 424 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Willis Reed · Heroes of the Game	ULTIMATE	0.01%	$800	14.1%
LeBron James · Base Set	COMMON	3.99%	$0.79	5.4%
Scottie Barnes

Sealed pack resale

Median $3.84 (90d)Last $3.90 · todayRetail $3.903,333 sales · 149 in 90d

trades ~0.98× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$3.86

Actual EV

$1.76

Net −$2.10 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.86 ask

Typical Pull

$0.60

Grail premium $1.16 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.46x

-54.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 86% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.86 ask

FMV coverage

100%

486 editions

Depletion

87%

pool · as of 15h ago

Packs remaining

3,242

of 25,000 minted · as of 15h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 15h ago

13%unopened

3,242 / 25,000 packs

Ultimate1 / 2 (50%)

0.03 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.01 · 3.9× launch rate

Legendary2 / 20 (10%)

0.06 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.08 · 0.8× launch rate

Rare344 / 2,478 (14%)

11 per 100 sealed packs · launch 9.9 · ≈ launch rate

Common9,379 / 72,500 (13%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 15h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Ultimate	1 / 2	<0.1%	~1 in 3,242
Legendary	2 / 20	<0.1%	~1 in 1,621
Rare	344 / 2,478	3.5%	~1 in 10
Common	9,379 / 72,500	96%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 486 of 486 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Cheitib78	$4.00	5d ago
@Quintenchen	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Fathomation	$4.00	5d ago
@Quintenchen	$4.00	120d ago
@Quintenchen	$4.00	120d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@TrigggaTreyy3	$3.90	11h ago
@TrigggaTreyy3	$3.00	11h ago
@TrigggaTreyy3	$3.00	11h ago
@TrigggaTreyy3	$3.00

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
LeBron James	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$0.79	<$0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$0.20	<$0.01

Top Shot Birthday 2025: Party Pack

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV