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NBA Top Shot · Pack #594

And Then There Were Four (Series 2)

Rare6 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$39.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$105

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$8.74

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $49.70/packvs realized $8.48 avg · $9.19 median · $9.30 p90(0.17×)

Calibrated estimate $8.36/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model over-values vs actual pulls · 10 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 55% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Devin Booker · And Then There Were Four	RARE	10.88%	$10.00	13.1%
Paul George · And Then There Were Four	RARE	12.93%	$8.10	12.6%
Patrick Beverley

Sealed pack resale

Last $39.00 · 8mo agoRetail $39.006 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$39.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $49.70 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $39.00

Typical Pull

$48.60

Grail premium $1.10 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $39.00

FMV coverage

100%

19 editions

Depletion

98%

live pool

Packs remaining

125

of 7,498 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 15h ago

1.7%unopened

125 / 7,498 packs

Rare127 / 7,497 (1.7%)

Common1,190 / 37,241 (3.2%)

Pull odds by tier

6 slots/pack · as of 15h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	127 / 7,497	9.6%	~1 in 2
Common	1,190 / 37,241	90%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

RareHit 8.16%

Patrick Beverley

And Then There Were Four

$12.60

RareHit 6.80%

Giannis Antetokounmpo

And Then There Were Four

$12.25

RareHit 8.16%

Chris Paul

And Then There Were Four

$11.70

RareHit 6.80%

Trae Young

And Then There Were Four

$10.25

RareHit 10.88%

Devin Booker

And Then There Were Four

$10.00

What's Inside

FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)

Patrick Beverley

And Then There Were Four

Giannis Antetokounmpo

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

And Then There Were Four

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 19

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Devin Booker	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.10%	$10.00	$0.06
Paul George	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.12%	$8.10	$0.06
Patrick Beverley	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.08%	$12.60	$0.06
Chris Paul	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.08%	$11.70	$0.05
John Collins	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.11%	$8.10	$0.05
Giannis Antetokounmpo	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.06%	$12.25	$0.05
Trae Young	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.06%	$10.25	$0.04
Reggie Jackson	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.08%	$7.83	$0.04
Jrue Holiday	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.06%	$9.00	$0.03
Clint Capela	And Then There Were Four	RARE	0.06%	$4.80	$0.02

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 8:13:23 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.