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NBA Top Shot · Pack #643
Boston Celtics Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$3.99
Actual EV
$1.14
Net −$2.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.99
Typical Pull
$0.96
Grail premium $0.18 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.29x
-71.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.99
FMV coverage
100%
33 editions
Depletion
89%
live pool
Packs remaining
530
of 4,702 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 4h ago11%unopened
Rare2 / 23 (8.7%)
Common1,582 / 14,083 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 4h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 2 / 23 | 0.1% | ~1 in 264 |
| Common | 1,582 / 14,083 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 33 of 33 (100%)Jaylen Brown
Metallic Gold LE
RARE5
FMV
$11.00
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.08%Wt 0.002
Jayson Tatum
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$8.33
Floor
$7.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.08%Wt 0.002
Payton Pritchard
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$7.54
Floor
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.08%Wt 0.002
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.89
Floor
$0.99
Mint 9,500
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.015
Danny Ainge
Archive Set 1986-87
COMMON5
FMV
$0.64
Floor
$0.75
Mint 5,000
Hit 0.89%Wt 0.021
Payton Pritchard
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.60
Floor
$0.25
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.14%Wt 0.026
Al Horford
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.51
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 14.69%Wt 0.342
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.73%Wt 0.017
Al Horford
Archive Set 2014-19
COMMON5
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.24
Mint 4,500
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.009
Jae Crowder
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,500
Hit 20.94%Wt 0.487
Sam Hauser
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.29
Mint 16,000
Hit 2.11%Wt 0.049
Derrick White
Fresh Threads
COMMON4
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.30
Mint 11,111
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.015
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 3.98%Wt 0.092
Jaylen Brown
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 0.81%Wt 0.019
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,500
Hit 9.90%Wt 0.23
Tyler Zeller
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 20.45%Wt 0.475
Jayson Tatum
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,500
Hit 1.62%Wt 0.038
Al Horford
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 4.06%Wt 0.094
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.23
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.011
Jayson Tatum
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.29
Mint 9,999
Hit 2.19%Wt 0.051
Derrick White
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 16,000
Hit 4.46%Wt 0.104
Jaylen Brown
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.15
Mint 40,000
Hit 2.92%Wt 0.068
Al Horford
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.015
Payton Pritchard
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.14%Wt 0.096