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NBA Top Shot · Pack #651
Chicago Bulls Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$4.00
Actual EV
$1.55
Net −$2.45 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $4.00
Typical Pull
$1.26
Grail premium $0.29 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.39x
-61.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $4.00
FMV coverage
100%
35 editions
Depletion
89%
live pool
Packs remaining
334
of 2,944 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 8h ago11%unopened
Rare2 / 14 (14%)
Common994 / 8,818 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 8h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 2 / 14 | 0.2% | ~1 in 166 |
| Common | 994 / 8,818 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 35 of 35 (100%)Alex Caruso
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$5.47
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.23%Wt 0.006
Ayo Dosunmu
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$2.14
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.23%Wt 0.006
Ben Gordon
Archive Set
COMMON3
FMV
$1.04
Floor
$0.26
Mint 20,000
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.015
Charles Oakley
Archive Set 1986-87
COMMON5
FMV
$0.93
Floor
$0.82
Mint 5,000
Hit 1.01%Wt 0.027
Joakim Noah
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.90
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,500
Hit 17.36%Wt 0.461
Kirk Hinrich
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.48
Floor
$0.36
Mint 4,500
Hit 18.49%Wt 0.491
Patrick Williams
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.48
Floor
$0.25
Mint 9,500
Hit 1.01%Wt 0.027
Nikola Vučević
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 1.01%Wt 0.027
Alex Caruso
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.29
Mint 8,500
Hit 3.83%Wt 0.102
Alex Caruso
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.27
Mint 12,000
Hit 5.52%Wt 0.147
Dalen Terry
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.26
Mint 16,000
Hit 3.83%Wt 0.102
Andre Drummond
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 1.35%Wt 0.036
Coby White
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 6.43%Wt 0.171
Zach LaVine
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 40,000
Hit 3.27%Wt 0.087
Ayo Dosunmu
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.27
Mint 16,000
Hit 2.03%Wt 0.054
Zach LaVine
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.26
Mint 16,000
Hit 3.16%Wt 0.084
Nikola Vučević
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.10
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.039
Nikola Vučević
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 10.03%Wt 0.266
Coby White
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.80%Wt 0.048
Coby White
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.25
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.35%Wt 0.036
Alex Caruso
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 5.98%Wt 0.159
Lonzo Ball
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.26
Mint 9,999
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.069
Andre Drummond
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.14%Wt 0.057
Zach LaVine
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.21
Mint 35,000
Hit 1.13%Wt 0.03