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NBA Top Shot · Pack #654
Denver Nuggets Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$2.10
Actual EV
$0.75
Net −$1.35 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 89% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.10 ask
Typical Pull
$0.63
Grail premium $0.12 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.36x
-64.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 89% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.10 ask
FMV coverage
100%
38 editions
Depletion
89%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
491
of 4,552 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago11%unopened
Rare3 / 24 (13%)
0.61 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.53 · 1.2× launch rate
Common1,470 / 13,632 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 3 / 24 | 0.2% | ~1 in 164 |
| Common | 1,470 / 13,632 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 38 of 38 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Fat Lever
Assist · Apr 25, 1987
Run It Back 1986-87
RARESeries 4
FMV
$5.24
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Aaron Gordon
Dunk · Apr 5, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$5.38
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Nikola Jokić
Hook Shot · Oct 24, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24Explosion
FMV
$0.85
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 500
Hit 2.85%Wt 0.029
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Feb 20, 2021
Seeing Stars
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.70
Recent Low
$0.35
Mint 10,000
Hit 0.34%Wt 0.003
Nikola Jokić
Hook Shot · Oct 24, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.37
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.77%Wt 0.018
Nikola Jokić
3 Pointer · Jun 4, 2021
2021 NBA Playoffs
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.35
Recent Low
$0.25
Mint 12,000
Hit 1.22%Wt 0.012
Peyton Watson
Block · Apr 3, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.28
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.81%Wt 0.078
Michael Porter Jr.
Dunk · May 8, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Jan 8, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 60,000
Hit 13.10%Wt 0.131
Michael Porter Jr.
Dunk · Feb 26, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.10
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.68%Wt 0.007
Jamal Murray
Assist · Mar 13, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.09%Wt 0.011
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Apr 24, 2022
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,750
Hit 0.75%Wt 0.007
Christian Braun
Block · Oct 29, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 0.68%Wt 0.007
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Jan 6, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.68%Wt 0.007
Wilson Chandler
Dunk · Jan 17, 2015
Archive Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 16.29%Wt 0.163
Nikola Jokić
Jump Shot · Feb 6, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.49%Wt 0.015
Kenneth Faried
Dunk · Mar 6, 2016
Archive Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 16.77%Wt 0.168
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Steal · Oct 24, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 8,000
Hit 13.24%Wt 0.132
Peyton Watson
Dunk · Oct 29, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.62%Wt 0.046
Jamal Murray
Assist · Oct 27, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.22%Wt 0.012
Aaron Gordon
Dunk · Dec 14, 2021
Hustle and Show
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 18,000
Hit 1.36%Wt 0.014
Aaron Gordon
Dunk · Nov 24, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 60,000
Hit 2.99%Wt 0.03
Aaron Gordon
Dunk · Mar 29, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.18
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 40,000
Hit 0.95%Wt 0.01
Aaron Gordon
Assist · Jan 12, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 4
FMV
$0.17
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.41%Wt 0.044