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NBA Top Shot · Pack #654
Denver Nuggets Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$3.96
Actual EV
$1.03
Net −$2.93 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.96
Typical Pull
$0.81
Grail premium $0.22 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.26x
-74.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (89% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.96
FMV coverage
100%
31 editions
Depletion
89%
live pool
Packs remaining
498
of 4,552 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 14h ago11%unopened
Rare3 / 24 (13%)
Common1,488 / 13,632 (11%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 14h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 3 / 24 | 0.2% | ~1 in 166 |
| Common | 1,488 / 13,632 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 31 of 31 (100%)Fat Lever
Run It Back 1986-87
RARE5
FMV
$8.50
Floor
$7.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.002
Aaron Gordon
Throwdowns
RARE2
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.004
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.99
Floor
$0.95
Mint 8,500
Hit 5.00%Wt 0.139
Christian Braun
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.56
Floor
$0.45
Mint 7,904
Hit 0.72%Wt 0.02
Nikola Jokić
Game Recognize Game
COMMON4
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.25
Mint 10,000
Hit 0.51%Wt 0.014
Nikola Jokić
Seeing Stars
COMMON2
FMV
$0.47
Floor
$0.41
Mint 10,000
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.01
Peyton Watson
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.30
Mint 16,000
Hit 8.33%Wt 0.231
Nikola Jokić
2021 NBA Playoffs
COMMON2
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.25
Mint 12,000
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.036
Zeke Nnaji
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.39
Mint 12,000
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.018
Nikola Jokić
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.25
Mint 5,555
Hit 0.43%Wt 0.012
Nikola Jokić
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.39
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,750
Hit 0.80%Wt 0.022
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.34
Floor
$0.27
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.59%Wt 0.044
Kenneth Faried
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.32
Floor
$0.30
Mint 4,500
Hit 18.10%Wt 0.502
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.10
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.72%Wt 0.02
Michael Porter Jr.
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.26
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.72%Wt 0.02
Wilson Chandler
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.17
Mint 4,500
Hit 17.60%Wt 0.488
Peyton Watson
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.92%Wt 0.137
Jamal Murray
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.24
Mint 5,555
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.01
Nikola Jokić
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 14.05%Wt 0.39
Aaron Gordon
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.20
Mint 16,000
Hit 4.85%Wt 0.135
Aaron Gordon
Hustle and Show
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 18,000
Hit 1.59%Wt 0.044
Jamal Murray
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.21
Mint 8,500
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.036
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 14.41%Wt 0.4
Jamal Murray
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.24
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.018