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NBA Top Shot · Pack #656
Golden State Warriors Pack
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$3.88
Actual EV
$1.33
Net −$2.55 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (80% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.88
Typical Pull
$0.99
Grail premium $0.34 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
0.34x
-65.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (80% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.88
FMV coverage
100%
37 editions
Depletion
80%
live pool
Packs remaining
938
of 4,616 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 7h ago20%unopened
Rare5 / 22 (23%)
Common2,806 / 13,826 (20%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 7h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 5 / 22 | 0.2% | ~1 in 188 |
| Common | 2,806 / 13,826 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 37 of 37 (100%)Baron Davis
Run It Back 2005-06
RARE3
FMV
$13.33
Floor
$12.00
Mint 990
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Sleepy Floyd
Run It Back 1986-87
RARE5
FMV
$7.60
Floor
$7.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Klay Thompson
Metallic Gold LE
RARE4
FMV
$7.08
Floor
$5.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Klay Thompson
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$6.67
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Kevon Looney
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$4.80
Floor
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.07%Wt 0.001
Steph Curry
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$2.89
Floor
$2.00
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.20%Wt 0.019
Jonathan Kuminga
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$2.26
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.81%Wt 0.029
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.72
Floor
$0.55
Mint 35,000
Hit 0.47%Wt 0.007
Steph Curry
Game Recognize Game
COMMON4
FMV
$0.65
Floor
$0.30
Mint 10,000
Hit 0.94%Wt 0.015
Steph Curry
Extra Spice
COMMON4
FMV
$0.63
Floor
$0.40
Mint 6,500
Hit 1.34%Wt 0.021
Steph Curry
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.60
Floor
$0.50
Mint 8,500
Hit 1.34%Wt 0.021
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.48
Floor
$0.26
Mint 40,000
Hit 1.87%Wt 0.03
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.10
Mint 60,000
Hit 20.27%Wt 0.323
Jonathan Kuminga
Hustle and Show
COMMON4
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.25
Mint 18,000
Hit 4.15%Wt 0.066
Joe Barry Carroll
Archive Set 1986-87
COMMON5
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.24
Mint 5,000
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.022
Jonathan Kuminga
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 16,000
Hit 2.21%Wt 0.035
Steph Curry
Base Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.28
Mint 8,500
Hit 12.44%Wt 0.198
Draymond Green
Base Set
COMMON2
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.21
Mint 40,000
Hit 3.81%Wt 0.061
Klay Thompson
Spotlight Series
COMMON5
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.23
Mint 5,555
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.027
Gary Payton II
Extra Spice
COMMON4
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.24
Mint 6,500
Hit 1.07%Wt 0.017
Draymond Green
Game Recognize Game
COMMON4
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.21
Mint 10,000
Hit 1.87%Wt 0.03
Shaun Livingston
Archive Set
COMMON6
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,500
Hit 29.23%Wt 0.466
Draymond Green
2022 NBA Playoffs
COMMON4
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.10
Mint 8,750
Hit 1.00%Wt 0.016
Draymond Green
Base Set
COMMON5
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.24
Mint 16,000
Hit 7.63%Wt 0.122