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NBA Top Shot · Pack #6744

Holiday of Hoops: Top Shot This

Fandom5 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $10.63/pack▼ 75% below the $43.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (86% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $43.00Typical pull ≈ $5.65 · grail premium $4.98 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$43.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

349

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

1,733

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$233

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$14.59

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 53% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Steph Curry · Top Shot This	FANDOM	31.59%	$3.53	52.5%
Jamal Murray · Top Shot This	FANDOM	31.85%	$1.13	16.9%
Victor Wembanyama · Top Shot This	FANDOM	4.96%	$6.56	15.3%
Kevin Durant · Top Shot This	FANDOM	30.81%	$1.02	14.8%
Mikal Bridges · Top Shot This	FANDOM	0.78%	$1.32

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $61.00 · 4mo agoRetail $43.00332 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$43.00

Actual EV

$10.63

Net −$32.37 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (86% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $43.00

Typical Pull

$5.65

Grail premium $4.98 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.25x

-75.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (86% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $43.00

FMV coverage

100%

5 editions

Depletion

86%

pool · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

139

of 965 minted · as of 66d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 66d ago

14%unopened

139 / 965 packs

Fandom695 / 4,825 (14%)

Pull odds by tier

5 slots/pack · as of 66d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Fandom	695 / 4,825	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 5 of 5 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

Top purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Maxicookie	$65.00	153d ago
@funguy626	$65.00	154d ago
@Maxicookie	$65.00	156d ago
@Maxicookie	$65.00	158d ago
@Maxicookie	$65.00	160d ago
@Maxicookie	$65.00	160d ago
@BigDaddaBear	$64.00	135d ago
@jfreezy	$64.00	148d ago

Recent purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@BigDaddaBear	$64.00	135d ago
@jfreezy	$64.00	148d ago
@Maxicookie	$65.00	153d ago
@funguy626	$65.00

Top pulls by EV

top 5 of 5

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Steph Curry	Top Shot This	FANDOM	0.13%	$3.53	$0.02
Jamal Murray	Top Shot This	FANDOM	0.13%	$1.13	$0.01
Victor Wembanyama	Top Shot This	FANDOM	0.02%