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NBA Top Shot · Pack #753

Fresh Threads Web

Common

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$4.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

557

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

2,228

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2.73

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.37

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 64% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Dennis Schröder · Fresh Threads	COMMON	12.09%	$0.89	19.0%
Derrick Rose · Fresh Threads	COMMON	12.91%	$0.75	17.1%
Donte DiVincenzo · Fresh Threads	COMMON	12.09%	$0.80	17.0%
Jrue Holiday · Fresh Threads	COMMON	12.36%	$0.53	11.5%
John Collins · Fresh Threads	COMMON	12.36%	$0.49

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $5.00 · 1y agoRetail $4.00580 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$4.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $0.58 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (91% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $4.00

Typical Pull

$0.53

Grail premium $0.05 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (91% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $4.00

FMV coverage

100%

8 editions

Depletion

91%

live pool

Packs remaining

364

of 3,889 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 19h ago

9.4%unopened

364 / 3,889 packs

Common1,456 / 15,556 (9.4%)

Pull odds by tier

per pack · as of 19h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Common	1,456 / 15,556	100%	—

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 8 of 8 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 8 of 8

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Lonnie Walker IV	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.42	—
Derrick Rose	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.75	—
Grant Williams	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.32	—
Marcus Smart	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.36	—
John Collins	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.49	—
Jrue Holiday	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.14%	$0.53	—
Dennis Schröder	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.13%	$0.89	—
Donte DiVincenzo	Fresh Threads	COMMON	0.13%	$0.80	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 7:07:38 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.